Early Look

Friday, May 16, 2025

U.S. futures are edging higher, looking to build on the weekly win streak for the S&P 500 which has closed higher every trading day this week while the Nasdaq snapped its 6-day win streak on Thursday, ending with a modest loss. Halfway through the month and the S&P is +6.25% and the Nasdaq +9.55%, while the Russell 2000 has gained 6.65%. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages has lagged, only +4% in May due the weakness in UNH which has tumbled over -33% this month on a myriad of concerns. After max fear last month on tariff uncertainty, stocks have surged over the last 4 weeks more than 20%, while the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) has tumbled to 17.50. Treasury yields have also eased off weekly highs above 4.54%, with the 10-yr down at 4.40% this morning. Stocks got off on the right foot this week after the surprise US-China tariff rollback kicked it off with a bang and a rally in stocks. On Friday, investors will get another clue as to how Americans are handling the arrival of tariffs in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey for May, as well as monthly import and export prices and April housing starts. On trade, President Donald Trump said that the US will set tariff rates for its trading partners within the next few weeks. He explained that the administration cannot negotiate trade deals with all countries at once due to limited capacity. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index was little changed at 37,753, the Shanghai Index fell -13 points to 3,367, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -108 points to 23,345. In Europe, the German DAX is up 159 points to 23,855, while the FTSE 100 is up 57 points to 8,691. A potentially higher volume day upcoming heading into option expiration where Goldman Sachs noted they estimate that over $2.8 trillion of notional options exposure will expire today, including $1.2 trillion of SPX options and $580 billion notional of single stock options. This will be the largest May expiration on record,

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 271.69 points, or 0.65%, to 42,322.75
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -34.49 points, or 0.18%, to 19,112.32
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 10.89 points, or 0.52% to 2,094.70

• 8:30 AM ET                  Building Permits M/M for April…est. 1.45M (prior 1.467M)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Import Prices M/M for April…est. (-0.4%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Export Prices M/M for April…est. (-0.5%)
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence, May-Prelim…est. 53.4 (prior 52.2)
• 10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations
• 1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data
• 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long-term TIC flows for March

• Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management disclosed in an SEC 13F filing it added UBER in Q1; exited one position during the quarter, NKE; increased its stake in three holdings, BN, HTZ and GOOGL; and reduced its stake in four holdings, HLT, GOOG, CMG and CP.
• David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management disclosed in an 13F SEC filing it added four new buys in Q1 DB, LHX, AVGO, XYZ; exited positions of AMD, FDX, EQT, AR and EXE; increased its stake in UBER, NRG, META, GLW and UNH and reduced its stake in MSFT, ORCL, VST, AMZN and QCOM.
• Jeffrey Smith’s Starboard Value 13F filing reveals: new buys of QRVO and BDX; exited GDDY and WIX; increased its stake in ADSK, AQN, KVUE, CRM, ALIT; and reduced its stake in PFE, FTRE, MTCH, RIOT and IJH.
• Third Point LLC disclosed in a SEC filing/13F filing new buys of KVUE, NVDA, CSGP, X and CASY; exited positions of DHR, META, FERG, TSLA, and TMO; increased its stake in APO, TDS, LYV, PRMB and COF; reduced its stake in a AMZN, MSFT, ICE, BN, and Jacobs (J).
• Stephen Mandel’s Lone Pine Capital disclosed in 13-F SEC filing added four new buys in Q1 LLY, COF, FLUT, CIFR; exited three positions UNH, BKNG, GEV; increased its stake in PM, SBUX, INTU, META and TLN and reduced its stake in LEN, CEG, XYZ, AMZN, SPOT.
• Carl Icahn’s Icahn Capital disclosed in 13F they increased its stake in four holdings, CVI, JBLU, ILMN, UAN; reduced its stake in one holding, SWX; and top holdings as of March 31, in order of size, were IEP, CVI, SWX, UAN and IFF.
• George Soros’ Soros Fund Management 13F filing showed: new buys for AEP, ETR, JPM, TKO, ASHR; exited positions of IWM, AJG, BABA, J, VTR; increased its stake in SPY, FLUT, GS, SARO, CBRG and reduced stakes in GOOGL, JD, SW, LQD, KWEB.

• Estee Lauder (EL) shares pre mkt after Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management included a long position in the U.S. cosmetic giant (filing also showed two other buys of NVDA and China’s Trip.com).

• Vistra (VST) said it would acquire seven natural gas generation facilities, with a combined capacity of nearly 2,600 megawatt, from Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion, as it looks to meet growing power demand.
• V2X (VVX) announces a 2M share offering of common stock for holders.
• A US Treasury delegation met with Hong Kong banks to warn them against facilitating Iran oil shipments to China in April, just a month before sanctioning nine non-bank entities in the city allegedly involved in such trades, Bloomberg reported.

• Reviva Pharmaceuticals (RVPH) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.13) vs. est. loss (-$0.18); said late stage brilaroxazine program is advancing towards registration and are excited for our important near-term catalysts ahead. Notably, the full dataset from our global OLE trial will include data from 446 participants of which 156 have completed at least one-year of treatment.
• Globus Medical (GMED) announces a $500M share repurchase program.

• Charter Communications (CHTR) is in advanced talks to combine with Cox, in a deal that will value Cox at more than $30B and unite two of the biggest cable providers in the United States, Bloomberg News reports. https://tinyurl.com/mryf8nm4
• Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management ended the first quarter more bearish on Chinese companies as the Trump administration discussed new trade policies, a regulatory filing showed, but bought put options on Chinese companies BABA, BIDU, JD.
• Globant SA (GLOB) Q1 adj EPS $1.50, vs. est. $1.58; Q1 revs rose 7% y/y to $611.1M vs. est. $621.39M; sees FY25 adjusted EPS at least $6.10 vs. est. $6.82 and revs $2.464B vs. est. $2.64B
• Microsoft (MSFT) may avoid EU antitrust fines as the European Commission tests its proposal to sell Teams separately. Positive feedback could lead to the case being dropped, reports Bloomberg
• Nvidia (NVDA) plans to establish an R&D center in Shanghai to cater to Chinese customer demands and navigate US trade restrictions, reports Financial Times. CEO Jensen Huang discussed the initiative with Shanghai’s mayor last month.
• Sensata Technologies Holding Plc (ST) said Brian Roberts to resign as CFO effective May 15, 2025, and Andrew Lynch appointed interim CFO effective May 16, 2025, as per SEC filing.
• Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) lowered its FY26 bookings forecast to $5.95B-$6.05B vs. expectations of $6.46B after “GTA VI” was delayed; reported Q4 EPS loss (-$21.08) on revs $1.58B vs. est. $1.55B and sees Q1 EPS loss (-$0.78-$0.65) vs. est. loss (-$0.78) and bookings $1.25B-$1.3B vs. est. $1.28B.
• Lamar Advertising (LAMR) increases stock repurchase program to $150M.