Early Look

Friday, November 5, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	12.00	0.03%	36,021
S&P 500	10.25	0.23%	4,684
Nasdaq	82.50	0.51%	16,413

 

 

Stock futures are looking higher, with the tech heavy Nasdaq futures leading up +0.5%, trying to make it a 10^th straight day of advances for the Composite ahead of key economic data. The monthly nonfarm payroll report for October is coming up later this morning, with an estimate for 450K jobs added, 400K added for private payrolls, 27K added for manufacturing and an unemployment rate to drop to 4.7% from 4.8% prior. Regardless of the data outcome, the Fed earlier this week announced it will start tapering its monthly $120B bond purchases by $15B in November and another $15B in December, also saying comparable decreases in pace are likely each month but they are willing to adapt if necessary. Stocks are looking to build on the momentous surge it has seen over the last two weeks, as the S&P 500 is on pace for its third straight year of 15%+ price gains, that would be just the second time that’s happened since 1928, according to Bespoke Investment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record high levels on Thursday, powered by double-digit percentage gains chipmakers Qualcomm and Nvidia. Qualcomm surged nearly 13% after the company provided a stronger than expected outlook, fueled by soaring demand for chips used in phones, cars and other internet-connected devices. Note the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s have now set record high closes for six straight sessions. On the downside, the financials index sank Thursday as Treasury yields extended their tumble. With Thursday’s gains, the S&P 500 is up almost 25% in 2021 and the Nasdaq has gained nearly 24%. The Philadelphia chip index (SOX) jumped 3.5% for the session and it is now up 33% year to date. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -0.6% to 29,611, the Shanghai Index dropped -1% to 3,491 and the Hang Seng Index declined -1.4% or over 3250 points to 24,879. In Europe, the German DAX is up slightly at 16,040, while the FTSE 100 gains roughly 0.5% to trade above the 7,300 level in another good week for European markets. Oil prices are bouncing after yesterday’s drop, Bitcoin stays above $61K and Treasury yields remain depressed.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index climbed 19.49 points, or 0.42%, to 4,680.06

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -33.35 points, or 0.09%, to 36,124.23

·     The Nasdaq Composite spiked 128.72 points, or 0.81%, to 15,940.31

·     The Russell 2000 Index slipped -1.85 points, or 0.08% to 2,402.43

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET         Nonfarm Payrolls for October…est. 450K

·     8:30 AM ET         Private Payrolls for October…est. 400K

·     8:30 AM ET         Manufacturing Payrolls for October…est. 27K

·     8:30 AM ET         Unemployment Rate for October…est. 4.7%

·     8:30 AM ET         Average Hourly Earnings for October…est. 0.4%

·     1:00 PM EST       Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

·     3:00 AM ET         Consumer Credit for September

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: AMR, AXL, CLMT, CNK, D, DKNG, DOC, ECOL, EOG, ESNT, FET, FLR, GCI, GRPN, GT, HE, JCI, KIM, MMI, MOG/A, NOG, RGA, SRE, SSP, TEN, TILE, TUSK, VTR, VST

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	0.85	79.66
Brent	0.51	81.05
Gold	1.50	1,793.50
EUR/USD	-0.0021	1.1531
JPY/USD	0.08	113.86
10-Year Note	+0.008	1.532%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     B&G Foods (BGS) Q3 adj EPS $0.55, in-line with ests; Q3 revs $515M vs. est. $489.64M; reaffirms FY21 revenue view $2.05B-$2.1B and sees FY21 adjusted EBITDA $358M-$365M

·     Floor & Decor (FND) Q3 EPS $0.69 vs. est. $0.57; Q3 revs rose 28% to $876.6M vs. est. $856.74M; said Q3 comp sales rose 10.9% Yoy

·     Funko (FNKO) Q3 adj EPS $0.39 vs est. $0.27 on sales $267.7M vs est. $240.7M; DTC sales +88% YoY, now account for 11% of net sales; sees FY21 adj EPS $1.20-$1.31 vs est. $1.15 on sales $950M-$975M vs est. $922.1M

·     GoPro (GPRO) Q3 adj EPS $0.34 vs est. $0.20 on revenue $316.7M vs est. $292.2M, adj EBITDA $60.4M vs est. $39.8M; subscriber count 1.34M, +168% YoY; avg selling price $381, +25% YoY

·     Monster Beverage (MNST) 3Q EPS $0.63 vs est. $0.67 on sales $1.41B vs est. $1.4B

·     Peloton (PTON) shares plunge 30%; 1Q EPS ($1.25) vs est. ($1.07) on revs $805.2Mm vs est. $810.7Mm, 1Q connected fitness subs +87% to 2.49Mm and paid digital subs +74% to 887K; guides 2Q revs about $1.1-1.2B vs est. $1.5B, sees FY revs $4.4-4.8B vs est. $5.4B

·     Shake Shack (SHAK) Q3 adj EPS (5c) vs est. (6c) on revenue $193.9M vs est. $197.5M, same-store sales +24.8%; sees Q4 revenue $193.5M-$200M vs est. $202.1M;

·     Uber Technologies (UBER) Q4 EPS loss (-$1.28) vs. est. loss (-$0.33); qtrly revenue grew 72% yoy to$4.8 billion, or 69% on a constant currency basis; qtrly gross bookings reached an all-time high of $23.1 bln, up 57% YoY; airport gross bookings mix in U.S. has reverted back to pre-covid levels while approaching 12% to 13% of global mobility gross bookings; for the first time in 2021, demand recovery is in balance with supply recovery; beginning to rapidly build non-restaurant food delivery offerings in 2021

·     WW Inc. (WW) Q3 EPS $0.65 vs. est. $0.73; Q3 revs $293.5M vs. est. $314.12M; ends Q3 with subscribers of 4.5M; sees FY21 GAAP EPS 80c-90c below consensus $1.65; sees FY21 revs modestly above $1.2B vs. est. $1.29B

·     The Real Good Food Company (RGF) 5.333M share IPO priced at $12.00

 

Energy

·     Delek (DK) Q3 adj EPS $0.13 vs. est. loss (-$0.35); Q3 revs $2.96B vs. est. $2.55B; refining contribution margin increased to $91.4 mln in q3 2021 from negative $17.8M in Q3; midstream remains resilient with dkl on-track to deliver a 5% distribution increase on a full-year basis

·     EOG Resources (EOG) Q3 adj EPS $2.16 vs. est. $2.04; Q3 revs $4.77B vs. est. $4.53B; qtrly total company crude oil production of 449,500 boed; increased regular dividend 82% to an indicated annual rate of $3.00 per share; Generated $1.4 billion of free cash flow; capital expenditures near low end of guidance range driven by sustainable cost reductions

·     First Solar (FSLR) 3Q EPS $0.42 vs est. $0.59 on revs $584Mm vs est. $685Mm; guides FY net sales $2.875-3.1B vs est. $2.9B, sees FY EPS $4.00-4.60 vs est. $4.15

·     Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q3 EPS $0.87 vs. est. $0.66; Q3 revs $6.81B vs. est. $6.55B; total average production from continuing operations of 1,160 thousand of barrels of oil equivalent per day for q3; in qtr, average worldwide realized crude oil prices increased by about 7% from prior qtr to $68.74 per barrel

·     SunRun (RUN) Q3 EPS $0.11 vs. est. $0.01; Q3 revs $438.8M vs. est. $414.3M; Customer Additions of 30,698 in Q3, Bringing Total Customers to 630,441, 20% year-over-year growth in Customers pro-forma for Vivint Solar; Net Subscriber Value of $7,605 in Q3, an increase of $2,031 from Q2; Annual Recurring Revenue of $787 Million with Average Contract Life Remaining of 17.3 years

 

Financials

·     AIG Inc. (AIG) Q3 adj eps $0.97 vs. est. $0.89; qtrly total general insurance net premiums written increased 11% to $6.6 billion from prior year quarter; qtrly total general insurance underwriting income was $20 mln compared to an underwriting loss of $423 million in prior year quarter; qtrly general insurance APTI increased by $395 million to $811 million from prior year quarter

·     CubeSmart (CUBE) 3Q adj FFO/shr $0.56 vs est. $0.53, qtrly same-store occupancy averaged 95.6% and ended qtr at 94.8%; guides Fy adj FFO/shr $2.09-2.10 vs est. $2.04

·     Redfin (RDFN) 3Q EPS ($0.20) vs est. ($0.19) on revs $540Mm vs est. $534.9Mm; guides 4Q revs $585-606Mm vs est. $503.4Mm

·     Green Dot (GDOT) Q3 adj EPS $0.43 vs est. $0.37 on revenue $339.5M vs est. $304.8B; now sees FY adj EPS $2.19-$2.27 from $2.13-$2.27, revenue $1.37B-$1.38B from $1.33B-$1.35B

·     Rocket Co’s (RKT) Q3 adj EPS $0.57 vs est. $0.48 on revenue $3.12B vs est. $2.93B; closed loan volume $88B, gain on sale margin of 3.05%, both of which exceed guidance; sees Q4 closed loan volume $75B-$80B, net rate lock volume $71B-$78B

·     Square Inc. (SQ) Q3 adj EPS $0.37 vs. est. $0.39; Q3 revs $3.84B below est. $4.52B; excluding bitcoin, total net revenue in the third quarter was $2.03 billion, up 45% YoY; bitcoin rev was $1.81 bln in q3, up 11%; bitcoin gross profit was only $42 mln, or about 2% of bitcoin revenue; transaction-based revenue was $1.30 billion in Q3, up 40% YoY; processed $45.4 billion in GPV in Q3 of 2021, up 43% YoY; cash app delivered strong growth, generating $2.39 billion of revenue

·     Monmouth Real Estate (MNR) to be acquired by ILPT for $21.00 per share, or $4B

 

Healthcare

·     Endo Pharma (ENDP) 3Q adj EPS $0.80 vs est. $0.48 on revs $772Mm vs est. $669.7Mm; guides FY revs $2.9-2.94B vs est. $2.79B, sees FY adj EPS $2.80-2.85 vs est. $2.33

·     Illumina (ILMN) Q3 adj EPS $1.45 vs. est. $1.14; Q3 revs $1.108B vs. est. $1.05B; raises FY rev guidance as expects both consolidated and core Illumina rev growth of about 36% for fy21

·     Insulet (PODD) 3Q EPS $0.18 vs est. $0.24 on revs $275.6Mm; guides FY revs to +18-20% vs est. +19.9%

·     iRhythm Technologies, Inc. (IRTC) 3Q EPS ($0.81) vs est. ($1.10) on revs $85.4Mm; guides FY revs $317-319Mm vs est. $323.5Mm

·     Mettler-Toledo (MTD) Q3 adj EPS $8.72 vs. est. $8.24; Q3 revs $952M vs. est. $924.31M; anticipates local currency sales growth for q4 of 2021 will be about 8% and EPS growth of 8% to 9%; anticipates local currency sales growth in 2022 will be about 6%

·     Novavax (NVAX) Q3 EPS ($4.31) vs. est. loss ($3.91); Q3 revs $178.8M vs. est. $334.62M; said as of September 30, 2021, Novavax had $1.9B in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, compared to $0.8B as of December 31, 2020; announced the completion of its rolling submission to the WHO for emergency use listing of NVX-CoV2373, its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

·     The FDA has declined to approve an EUA request from NRx Pharmaceuticals (NRXP) for Zyesami (aviptadil) for patients with critical COVID-19 with respiratory failure; shares down -24%

·     Evaxion Biotech (EVAX) 3.43M share Secondary priced at $7.00

·     IO Biotech (IOBT) 7.15M share IPO priced at $14.00

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (ATSG) 3Q adj EPS $0.60 vs est. $0.46 on revs $466Mm vs es.t $434.7Mm; guides FY adj EBITDA at least $535Mm vs est. $531Mm

·     Barnes Group (BE) Q3 adj EPS (20c) vs est. (9c) on revenue $207.2M vs est. $239M

·     Chemours (CC) 3Q adj EPS $1.27 vs est. $1.02 on revs $1.7B vs est. $1.58B; guides FY adj EPS $3.93-4.13 vs. est. $3.67

·     Livent Corp. (LTHM) 3Q adj EPS $0.03 vs est. $0.04 on revs $103.6Mm vs est. $96.1Mm; guides FY revs $390-410Mm vs est. $386.4Mm

·     MasTec (MTZ) Q3 adj EPS $1.81 vs. est. $1.68; Q3 revs $2.404B vs. est. $2.28B; guides 4Q adj EPS $1.33 vs est. $1.35, sees 4Q revs about $1.9B vs est. $2.1B

·     Snap-on (SNA) announces $500M share buyback

 

Internet:

·     AirBnB (ABNB) Q3 EPS $1.22 vs est. $0.75 on sales $2.24B vs est. $2.04B, adj EBITDA $1.1B – set quarterly records for net income and revenue; booked 79.7M nights and experiences, -7% vs 3Q19; sees Q4 revs $1.39B-$1.48B vs est. $1.44B

·     Expedia (EXPE) 3Q EPS $2.26 vs est. $1.65 on revs $2.96B vs est. $2.24B; results driven by superior performance from Vrbo and domestic travel; says qtrly booking trends for lodging, air and other travel products all declined sequentially, total gross bookings and total revs both increased significantly

·     Carvana (CVNA) Q3 EPS ($0.38) vs est. ($0.28) on revenue $3.48B (+125% YoY) vs est. $3.27B, retail units sold 111,949 (+74% YoY); expects Q4 revenue growth to be more closely aligned with retail unit growth than in Q3

·     MercadoLibre (MELI) 3Q EPS $1.92 vs est. $1.29 on revs $1.9B vs est. $1.86B, unique active users 78.7Mm, gr merch vol +29.7% to $7.3B on fx neutral basis, total payment vol +59% to $20.9B on FX neutral basis

·     Pinterest (PINS) Q3 adj EPS $0.28 vs. est. $0.23; Q3 revs $633M vs. est. $630.88M; Q3 Global Monthly Active Users grew 1% year over year to 444M vs. est. 463M; sees Q4 revenue up in high teens y/y vs. est. $874.08M; product searches were up over 100% year over year, and searches on the shop tab by gen z pinners have increased over 200% YoY

·     Yelp Inc. (YELP) 3Q EPS $0.24 vs est. $0.00 on revs $269Mm vs est. $251.2Mm; narrows FY revs guide to high end of range $1.02-1.03B vs est. $979Mm, sees FY adj EBITDA $233-243Mm vs est. $218Mm

 

Media & Telecom

·     Altice USA (ATUS) Q3 EPS $0.58 vs est. $0.52 on revenue $2.57B vs est. $2.51B; broadband residential customers 4.39 million, estimate 4.39 million; video residential customers 2.80 million, estimate 2.81 million; telephony residential customers 2.06 million, estimate 2.07 million

·     IAC Inc. (IAC) Q3 EPS $0.65 vs. est. loss ($-0.54); Q3 revs $924.1M vs. est. $869M; qtrly Angi inc. revenue increased 18% year-over-year to $462 million; qtrly DotDash revenue increased 28% year-over-year to $65 million

·     iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT) Q3 revenue $928M vs est. $911.2M, adj EBITDA $230.2M vs $162M YoY, consolidated adj EBITDA margin of 25%, +340 bps from 21% in 2Q21 and +300 bps from 22% in 3Q20; Q4 revenue expected to be +10% YoY despite comparison to strong political qtr (+22% ex-impact of Political); still expects to return to 2019 adj EBITDA levels by end of 2021

·     Live Nation (LYV) Q3 EPS $0.19 vs est. ($0.05) on revenue $2.7B vs est. $2.19B, all business segments returned to positive operating income, reported double-digit growth in pricing and on-site spending; Ticketmaster reported record operating income and AOI, sponsorship and ad business delivered over $100M in operating income for the first time since 3Q19

·     Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A) is exploring strategic options for its Media Networks (Starz) business; alternatives for Starz include, full or partial spin-off, split-off, issuance of tracking stock or other transactions

·     Qualtrics (XM) 23.81M share Secondary priced at $42.00

·     WWE Inc. (WWE) 3Q EPS $0.52 vs est. $0.36 on revs $255.8Mm vs est. $258.9Mm; guides FY adj OIBDA $305-315Mm with staging of only one large-scale international event, sees FY CAPEX $60-75Mm

 

Technology

·     Avalara (AVLR) 3Q adj EPS ($0.03) vs est. ($0.07) on revs $181.2Mm vs est. $170.3Mm; guides 4Q revs $183-185Mm vs est. $181.9Mm, sees FY revs $687-689Mm vs est. $675.2Mm

·     Bill.com holdings (BILL) 1Q adj EPS ($0.15) vs est. ($0.21) on revs $116.4Mm vs est. $104.7Mm; guides 2Q revs $130-131Mm vs est. $117Mm, sees 2Q adj EPS loss $0.18-0.17 vs est. loss $0.23, sees FY adj EPS loss $0.80-0.77 vs est. loss $0.90

·     BigCommerce Holdings (BIGC) 3Q adj EPS ($0.06) vs est. ($0.14) on revs $59.3Mm vs est. $54.9Mm; sees 4Q revs $61.3-61.7Mm vs est. $60.9Mm, sees FY revs $216.2-216.6Mm vs est. $211.4Mm

·     Cloudflare (NET) Q3 adj flat vs. est. loss (-$0.04); Q3 revenue rose 51% YoY to $172.3M vs. est. $165.65M; Strong large customer growth, with a record addition of roughly 170 large customers in the quarter, bringing the total number of large customers to 1,260; Raises FY21 revenue view to $647M-$648M from $629M-$633M (est. $631.81M)

·     Cognex (CGNX) Q3 adj EPS $0.40 vs. est. $0.46; Q3 revs $284.8M vs. est. $288.2M; sees Q4 revs $210M-$230M below consensus $249.48M; gross margin for Q4-21 is expected to be in the low-70% range and below the company’s mid-70% long-term target

·     DataDog (DDOG) 3Q adj EPS $0.13 vs est. $0.06 on revs $270Mm vs est. $247.7Mm; guides 4Q revs $290-292Mm vs est. $263.3Mm, sees 4Q adj EPS $0.11-0.12 vs est. $0.06

·     Dropbox (DBX) 3Q adj EPS $0.37 vs est. $0.24 on revs $550.2Mm vs est. $544.4Mm, qtrly total ARR ended at $2.218B

·     Fortinet (FTNT) 3Q adj EPS $0.99 vs est. $0.94 on revs $867.2Mm vs est. $811.5Mm; guides 4Q adj EPS $1.10-1.15 vs est. $1.16, sees 4Q revs $940-970Mm vs est. $916.5Mm; guides FY adj EPS $3.85-3.95 vs est. $3.87, sees FY revs $3.32-3.35B vs est. $3.24B

·     Microchip (MCHP) 2Q adj EPS $1.07 vs est. $1.06 on sales $1.65B vs est. $1.65B; sees 3Q net sales $1.716-1.782B vs est. $1.679B, sees 3Q adj EPS $1.14-1.20 vs est. $1.09

·     Motorola Solutions (MSI) Q3 adjusted EPS $2.35 vs. est. $2.12; Q3 revs $2.1B vs. est. $2.04B; Q3 record-ending backlog and continued business momentum position us well to finish the year with record sales, earnings, and cash flow; raises FY21 EPS view to $9.00-$9.04 from $8.88-$8.98 and boosts FY21 revenue growth view to 10%-10.25% from 9.5%-10%

·     nLight (LASR) 3Q adj EPS $0.08 vs est. $0.06 on revs $72.2Mm vs est. $71Mm; guides 4Q revs $66-72Mm vs est. $73Mm

·     NortonLifeLock Inc. (NLOK) 2Q adj EPS $0.43 vs est. $0.42 on adj revs $695Mm vs est. $695.3Mm; guides 3Q revs $695-705Mm vs est. $699.4Mm, sees 3Q adj EPS $0.42-0.44 vs est. $0.43; guides FY adj revs +9-10% vs est. +9.8%

·     Skyworks (SWKS) Q4 adj EPS $2.62 vs. est. $2.52; Q4 revs rose 37% to $1.31B vs. est. $1.3B; sees Q1 EPS $3.10 vs. est. $3.07; sees Q1 revs $1.475B-$1.525B vs. est. $1.5B

·     Synaptics (SYNA) Q1 adj EPS $2.68 vs. est. $2.59; Q1 revs $372.7M vs. est. $370.63M; sees Q2 revenue $390M-$420M vs. est. $379.67M; said qtrly non-GAAP gross margin at the highest level in the company’s history, and non-GAAP operating margin hitting another record

·     Teradata (TDC) Q3 adjusted EPS $0.43 vs. est. $0.33; Q3 revs $460M vs. est. $457.53M; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to $2.11-$2.15 from $1.92-$1.96 and affirms FY21 revenue growth view of low-single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage

·     Turtle Beach (HEAR) Q3 EPS 14c vs est. 5c on revenue $85.3M vs est. $78.4M; sees FY21 adj EPS $1.10-$1.45 from ~$1.55 (est. $1.56), revenue $365M-$380M from ~$385M (est. $384.9M) as they expect supply, logistics, and semiconductor challenges to impact revs by $25M-$30M

·     Velodyne Lidar Inc (VLDR) 3Q adj EPS ($0.19) vs est. ($0.15) on revs $13.1Mm; guides FY revs $60-63Mm vs est. $78.4Mm; pipeline of 220 projects at November 1st; says remains on track to sign three more multi-year agreements by EOY