Early Look

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	-68.00	0.20%	33,107
S&P 500	-2.25	0.07%	3,832
Nasdaq	5.50	0.05%	11,099

 

 

S&P futures are down slightly, less than -0.1% at 3,832 after yesterday strong advance (overnight high 3,848.75 and low 3,812) as election results from last night remain inconclusive early, with many states still close to call in both the House and Senate. Election results as of this morning showing that Republicans are indeed on track to reclaim the House of Representatives from Democrats (which was expected), but not nearly the “red wave” that some had anticipated, losing some close races that they were expected to “flip.” The Senate is even closer, with reports indicating 49 GOP seats (late calls in NC, Ohio helping) vs. 47 for Democrats, but show small leads in battle ground states AZ, GA, NV, and PA (this is not official – what some of latest polls are showing). Again, no clear winner at this time leading to market uncertainty for the time being. Hopefully clear winners can be determined this week. In corporate news, META announced a 13% workforce reduction, while Dow component and media giant Disney (DIS) slides over 7% this morning after a miss and disappointing commentary. Stocks rose Tuesday as investors awaited the results of the U.S. midterm elections, which could affect future levels of government spending and regulation and key inflation data tomorrow morning, with October consumer prices expected to show a small decline again from the prior month. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index slides -155 points to 27,716, the Shanghai Index fell -16 points or 0.5% to 3,048, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -1.2% or 198 points to 16,358. In Europe, the German DAX is down over -60 points to 13,625, while the FTSE 100 is down -0.2% to 7,289. Bitcoin prices resume downward move.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index climbed 21.31 points, or 0.56%, to 3,828.11

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 333.83 points, or 1.02%, to 33,160.83

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 51.68 points, or 0.49%, to 10,616.20

·     The Russell 2000 Index slipped -0.88 points, or 0.05% to 1,808.93

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     3:00 AM ET            Fed’s Williams Discuss Risk and Uncertainty at Event

·     7:00 AM ET            MBA Mortgage Applications Data

·     10:00 AM ET          Wholesale Inventories M/M for September

·     10:30 AM ET          Weekly DOE Inventory Data

·     11:00 AM ET          Fed’s Barkin Discusses the Economic Outlook

·     1:00 PM ET             US Treasury to sell $32B in 10-year notes

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ABUS ALE ANIP BHG CEVA CLSD COCO COHR DHI FET FTCI HBI IONS KPLT MSCFT MIDD NERV OLPX PAR PFGC RBLX RMBL SCYX SEAS STWD TAST TH TPG TTD VCEL WE WEN WWW XERS XPEL

·     Earnings After the Close: APP AREN ATO AVAH AVGR BARK BGS BLDE BMBY BODY BROS BYND CANO CDE COOK CPRX DM DSP EARN ENS EVLV FICO FOR FOSL G GDOT GNK GOEV HLTH IPAR JAMF KMPH LMB MGNI MQ NGL NLS NUVA ORGO PAHC PAY PAYO PETQ PLBY RDFN REI RIVN RKLB RKLY RNG ROOT RPAY RXT SCPL SOND STE TTEK TTGT U UHAL UP VUZI VZIO WISH WRAP WYNN XL

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.77	88.14
Brent	-0.58	94.78
Gold	-5.10	1,710.90
EUR/USD	-0.0017	1.0055
JPY/USD	0.08	145.75
10-Year Note	+0.008	4.136%

 

 

World News

·     China CPI YoY in October rose 2.1% vs 2.4% expected and 2.8% prior. PPI YoY fell -1.3% vs a fall of -1.5% expected and 0.9% prior. This was the first decline in PPI since Dec 2020

·     UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is examining plans to lower the £150,000 threshold at which Britons start paying the top rate of income tax, as part of efforts to fill a gaping hole in the public finances, according to officials

·     Tankan survey showed Japanese manufacturing optimism dropped to a 22-month low in November. Japan Sept trade deficit was JPY1759.7bn vs a deficit of JPY2490.00bn prior

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Tesla (TSLA) Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk sold at least $3.95 billion of the electric-vehicle maker’s shares just days after closing his buyout of Twitter Inc. Musk unloaded 19.5 million shares, according to regulatory filings on Tuesday in New York

·     AMC Entertainment (AMC) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.20) vs. est. loss (-$0.24); Q3 revs rose 27% y/y to $968.40M vs. est. $961.09M est.; 3Q Consolidated Attendance 53.18M, +33% Y/Y; currently has liquidity availability of $895.8M; sold approximately 14.9M shares of its AMC preferred equity units and raised net proceeds of about $36.4M

·     D.R. Horton (DHI) Q4 EPS $4.67 vs. est. $5.09; Q4 revs $9.64B vs. est. $9.97B; raises quarterly dividend to $0.25 from $0.22; Net sales orders for Q4 decreased 15% to 13,582 homes and 10% in value to $5.4 billion; Q4 cancellation rate was 32% compared to 19% in the prior year quarter.

·     Blink Charging (BLNK) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.47) vs. est. loss (-$0.51); Q3 revs rose 169% y/y to $17.2M vs. est. $15.4M

·     CarGurus (CARG) 3Q adj EPS $0.21 vs est. $0.25 on revs $426.5Mm vs est. $461.9Mm; sees 4Q revs $270-300Mm vs est. $468.4Mm and adj EPS $0.13-0.16 vs est. $0.29

·     Darling Ingredients (DAR) Q3 EPS $1.17 vs. est. $1.43; Q3 revs $1.75B vs. est. $1.61B; backs FY22 combined adjusted EBITDA view $1.55B-$1.6B

·     Lucid Group (LCID) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.40) vs. est. loss (-$0.31); Q3 revs $195.5M vs. est. $209M; Q3 Deliveries of 1,398 EVs and reaffirms FY guidance of 6k-7k deliveries

·     Sprout’s Farmers (SFM) 3Q EPS $0.61 vs est. $0.51 on net sales $1.6B vs est. $1.6B, comps +2.4%; guides 4Q comps approx +2.0%, adj EPS $0.35-0.39 vs est. $0.33; sees FY net sales +4.5-5.0% vs est. +3.8%, comps +2%, +16 new stores, CAPEX $120-135Mm

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q3 EPS $2.44 vs. est. $2.46; Q3 revs $9.5B vs. est. $9.5B; total average global production of 1,180 thousand of barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoed) for Q3; raised FY guidance for all 3 segments on strong Q3 results and improved outlook for OxyChem and midstream and marketing

·     Amyris (AMRS) 3Q EPS ($0.50) vs est. ($0.21) on revs $71.1Mm vs est. $91.2Mm; sees 4Q core revs more than $100Mm vs est. $139.5Mm

·     Array Technologies (ARRY) 3Q adj EPS $0.18 vs est. $0.10 on revs $515Mm vs est. $399.4Mm; adj EBITDA $55.4Mm vs est. $45.6Mm; guides FY revs $1.50-1.60B vs est. $1.48B, adj EBITDA $122.0-132.0Mm vs est. $118.9Mm and adj EPS $0.32-0.37 vs est. $0.30

·     Plug Power (PLUG) 3Q EPS ($0.30) vs est. ($0.23) on revs $188.6Mm vs est. $248Mm; reaffirms recent FY guide and projections for FY23 and beyond, sees FY23 revs $1.4B vs est. $1.37B

·     Axon Enterprises (AXON) Q3 adj EPS $0.60 vs. est. $0.49c; Q3 revs $311.8M vs. est. $279.13M; raises FY22 revenue to $1.15B-$1.16B from $1.07B-$1.12B (est. $1.1B) and raises 2022 adj Ebitda to $215M-$220M from prior view of about $200M

 

Financials

·     Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.86) vs. est. loss (-$0.83); Q1 revs $361.6M vs. est. $359.7M; sees Q2 revenue $400M-$420M vs. est. $433.6M and Q2 GMV $5.73B-$5.83B; guides FY23 revenue $1.60B-$1.68B below consensus $1.71B

·     Upstart Holdings (UPST) Q3 EPS loss ($0.24) vs est. loss ($0.07); Q3 revs $157.23M vs est. $171.16M, a decrease of 31% y/y and total fee revenue was $179M, down -15% y/y; Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate. Bank partners originated 188,519 loans, totaling $1.9 billion; sees Q4 revenue about $125M-$145M vs. est. $185M

·     Jack Henry Assoc (JKHY) 1Q EPS $1.46 vs est. $1.40 on revs $529.2Mm vs est. $534Mm; guides FY revs $2.092-2.099B vs est. $2.083B and GAAP EPS $4.90-4.94 vs est. $5.03, sees adj op margin 22.5-22.6%

·     Lemonade (LMND) Q3 EPS loss ($1.37) vs. est. loss ($1.32); Q3 revenue $74M vs. est. $64.64M; customer count increased by 30% to 1,775,824 as compared to Q3’21; sees FY22 revenue $245M-$248M vs. est. $236.91M

·     Marathon Digital (MARA) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.65c) vs est. loss (-$0.35); Q3 revs $12.69M vs est. $22.11M; mined 616 bitcoin in Q3 2022, -51% from 1,252 bitcoin YoY and -13% sequential decrease from 707 bitcoin QoQ

 

Healthcare

·     GoodRX (GDRX) 3Q adj EPS $0.07 vs est. $0.04 on revs $187.3Mm vs est. $185.3Mm, adj EBITDA $52.0Mm vs est. $37.5Mm; guides 4Q revs $175-180Mm vs est. $204.2Mm

·     Halozyme (HALO) 3Q adj EPS $0.74 vs est. $0.51 on revs $209Mm vs est. $191.1Mm; reiterates FY guidance

·     Novavax (NVAX) Q3 EPS loss ($2.15) vs. ($4.31) last year; Q3 revenue $734.6M vs. est. $586.25M; cut its full-year revenue forecast to be about $2B, the lower end of its prior $2B-$2.3B view, hurt by a global supply glut in COVID-19 vaccine and waning demand

·     Natera Inc. (NTRA) 3Q EPS ($1.25) vs est. ($1.44) on revs $210.6Mm vs est. $206.7Mm; guides FY revs $810-830Mm vs est. $819Mm

·     Masimo Corp. (MASI) Q3 EPS $1.00 vs. est. $0.92; Q3 revs $549.3M vs. est. $533.44M; sees Q4 EPS $1.11-$1.22 vs. est. $1.25 and Q4 revenue $581M-$611M vs. est. $617.16M; sees 2022 EPS $4.38-$4.49 vs. est. $4.45 and 2022 revenue $2.00B-$2.03B vs. est. $2.02B

 

Media & Telecom

·     Disney (DIS) Q4 EPS $0.30 misses the $0.57 estimate; Q4 revs $20.15B vs. est. $21.36; 4Q Disney+ Subscribers 164.2M, vs. est. 162.5M; has Disney+ paid subscribers of 164.2M as of October 1, up from 118.1M a year ago; ESPN+ paid subscribers of 24.3M, up from 17.1M a year ago; ​qtrly higher subscription rev under direct-to-consumer (DTC) due to subscriber growth and, to lesser extent, increases in retail pricing; expects sales to grow at high-single-digit rate in FY23 Disney sees CAPEX increasing to $6.7b in fy23 from $5B in FY22

·     IAC Inc. (IAC) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.74) vs. est. loss (-$0.52); Q3 revs $1.3B vs. est. $1.32B; Dotdash Meredith Digital revenue was $221M and Print revenue was $251M; ANGI revenue increased 8% y/y to $498M; qtrly emerging & other revenue increased 7% to $181M

·     News Corp. (NWSA) Q1 adj EPS $0.12 vs. est. $0.15; Q1 revs $2.48B vs. est. $2.49B; 1Q Book Publishing Rev $487M, Digital Real-Estate Services Rev $421M, Dow Jones Rev $515M, News Media Rev $553M, 1Q Subscription Video Services Rev $502M; Subscription Video Services Rev of $502M in 1Q Decreased $8M, or 2% y/y

Technology

·     Meta Platforms Inc (META) said it has decided to reduce the size of staff by about 13% and let more than 11,000 employees go: extending our hiring freeze through Q1 and said revenue outlook is lower than we expected at the beginning of this year

·     Akami Technology (AKAM) 3Q adj EPS $1.26 vs est. $1.22 on revs $881.9Mm vs est. $875.7Mm; adj EBITDA $368Mm vs est. $363Mm

·     Amdocs (DOX) 4Q adj EPS $1.29 vs est. $1.29 on revs $1.17B vs est. $1.17B; guides 1Q adj EPS $1.29-1.35 vs est. $1.42 and revs $1.155-1.195B vs est. $1.196B; sees FY23 revs +4.0-8.0% as reported vs est. +7.4% (sees +6.0-10.0% in constant currency)

·     3D Systems (DDD) 3Q adj EPS ($0.05) vs est. ($0.08) on revs $132.3Mm vs est. $133.7Mm; guides FY revs $535-545Mm vs est. $546.5Mm

·     Alarm Holdings (ALRM) 3Q adj EPS $0.55 vs est. $0.50 on revs $216.1Mm vs est. $211.5Mm; guides 4Q SaaS and license revs $130.5-130.7Mm; sees FY SaaS and license revs $516.3-516.5Mm, total revs $840.3-842.5Mm vs est. $841.7Mm, adj EBITDA $141.6-142.6Mm vs est. $145.5Mm, adj EPS $1.84-1.85 vs est. $1.84

·     LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP) 2Q adj EPS $0.22 vs est. $0.09 on revs $147Mm vs est. $143.4Mm; sees 3Q revs approx $158Mm vs est. $153.6Mm and FY revs $595-600Mm vs est. $592.4Mm

·     New Relic (NEWR) 2Q and EPS $0.13 vs est. ($0.06) on revs $226.9Mm vs est. $221.5Mm; sees 3Q revs $230-235Mm vs est. $235.3Mm and adj EPS $0.14-0.17 vs est. $0.14; guides FY revs $912-920Mm vs est. $920.2Mm and adj EPS $0.16-0.22 vs est. $0.10

·     PubMatic Inc. (PUBM) Q3 adj EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.13; Q3 revs $64.5M vs. est. $66.92M; sees Q4 revenue $75M-$78M, below consensus $94.04M and sees Q4 adjusted EBITDA $33M-$36M; also guides year revs below consensus

·     ViaSat Inc. (VSAT) 2Q adj EPS ($0.18) vs est. $0.31 on revs $745Mm vs est. $774.7Mm; guides FY revs and adj EBITDA growth +mid-single digit % vs est. revs +10.4% and est. adj EBITDA +14%