Early Look

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	36.00	0.10%	36,028
S&P 500	15.25	0.34%	4,657
Nasdaq	101.00	0.63%	16,081

 

 

U.S. stock markets are rebounding after major indices fell a second straight day Thursday as consumer price inflation (CPI) data spiked to 30-year highs, renewing fears that the Fed is behind the curve and may need to raise rates quicker. There is no major U.S. economic data, and Bond markets are closed today in observance of the Veteran’s Day Holiday. Sterling hits lowest levels since Dec ’20 vs. the dollar and euro to lowest since July ’20 as the buck surges to more than 1-year highs. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 171 points to settle at 29,277, the Shanghai Index gained 40 points (1.15%) to settle at 3,532 and the Hang Seng Index gained 1% to finish at 25,247. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by 20 points to 16,090, while the FTSE 100 is up 25 points to 7,365. Investors and traders have been trained to “buy the dip” on any market pullback over the last 2-years, and to this point have been rewarded with all major averages just off their record highs earlier this week. Year-to-date, the Dow is up 17.8%, the S&P 500 up 23.7%, the Nasdaq Composite up 21.2% and the Russell 2000 up 21% in what has been a broad, strong market rally behind better corporate earnings, government stimulus plans, and an easy money policy stance by the Fed. Earnings are finally coming to an end for the quarter, with Dow component Disney (DIS) sliding nearly 5% overnight on its top and bottom-line miss.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index slipped -38.54 points, or 0.82%, to 4,646.71

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -240.04 points, or 0.66%, to 36,079.94

·     The Nasdaq Composite dropped -263.84 points, or 1.66%, to 15,622.71

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -37.71 points, or 1.55% to 2,389.58

 

Events Calendar for Today

·     No major U.S. economic data due to Veteran’s Day Holiday

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: BHG, BKTI, CRC, CRLBF, CSU, EPC, OB, OGN, PGTI, SANW, SBH, SPH, STXS, TPR, TXMD, UTZ, WTT, XOS, YETI

·     Earnings After the Close: ASTR, JAMF, KINS, KRUS, LAZR, LIDR, LTRX, MAPS, OPNT, RPID, SFT

 

Other Key Events:

·     Baird 51st Annual Global Industrial Conference, 11/9-11/12 (virtual)

·     Credit Suisse 30th Annual Healthcare Conference, 11/8-11/11 (virtual)

·     Jefferies 2nd Annual Global Interactive Entertainment Conference, 11/11-11/12 (virtual)

·     JPMorgan Global Consumer, Retail & Luxury Conference, 11/8-11/11 (virtual)

·     Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals, Agriculture & Packaging Conference, 11/10-11/12 (virtual)

·     Piper East Coast Financial Services Conference, 11/10-11/11 (virtual)

·     REITWorld 2021 Annual Conference, 11/9-11/12 (virtual)

·     Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer, 11/10-11/14, in Washington D.C.

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.43	80.91
Brent	-0.25	82.39
Gold	12.80	1,862.40
EUR/USD	-0.0022	1.1458
JPY/USD	0.06	113.97
10-Year Note	Closed for	holiday

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Beazer Homes (BZH) Q4 EPS $1.57 vs. est. $0.82; Q4 revs $590.9M vs. est. $578.1M; homebuilding gross margin was 18.9%, up 250 basis points; SG&A as a percentage of total revenue was 11.4%, down 50 bps; net new orders of 5,564, down 11.6% on a 22.3% decrease in average community count; backlog dollar value of $1,284.0 million, up 29.0% on a 11.0% increase in backlog units to 2,786

·     Beyond Meat (BYND) shares slide -15%; 3Q EPS ($0.87) vs est. ($0.39) on revs $106.4Mm vs est. $109.2Mm; guides 4Q revs $85-110Mm vs est. $131.6Mm

·     Dutch Bros (BROS) 3Q adj EPS $0.23 vs est. ($0.20) on revs $129.8Mm vs est. $124.9Mm; guides 4Q revs $125-128Mm vs est. $121.2Mm

·     Figs Inc. (FIGS) Q3 adj EPS 5c vs est. 3c on revenue $102.7M vs est. $98.5M; raised full-year revenue forecast to $410M from $395M and above est. $399M

·     Fossil Group (FOSL) Q3 PS $0.60 on sales rising 13% to $492M; guides Q4 sales up 18%-25%; raises FY adj. Ebitda margin 8.5% to 9.5%, from prior 6% to 8%; Adjusted EBITDA was $62.5M, or 12.7% of net sales in Q3 and $43.3M, or 9.9% in the prior year period.

·     Golden Nugget Online (GNOG) Q3 EPS loss (55c) vs. est. loss (11c); Q3 revs rose 37.4% to $35.6M vs. est. $34.46M

·     Hain Celestial group (HAIN) files prospectus supplement related to resale of 12.4M shares by selling shareholders

·     Honest Co (HNST) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.06), in-line with ests; Q3 revs $82.6M vs. est. $80.8M; Gross profit of $29.8M and gross margin of 36% reflecting strong demand for our product offerings

·     Lordstown Motors (RIDE) has agreed to sell to Foxconn the Lordstown facility, excluding certain assets such as the hub motor assembly line and battery module and pack lines, for $230 million.

·     Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) 3Q adj EPS ($0.88) vs est. ($0.53) on revs $270.2Mm vs est. $273.2Mm; Q3 comparable restaurant revenue increased 34.3% over the same period in 2020, and increased 0.6% compared to the same period in 2019;

·     Rush Street (RSI) 3Q EPS ($0.09) vs est. ($0.13) on revs $122.9Mm vs est. $114.6Mm; guides FY revs $480-500Mm vs est. $484.3Mm

·     Utz Brands (UTZ) Q3 adj EPS $0.18 vs. est. $0.15; Q3 revs to $312.7M vs. est. $307.61M; increase in net sales was driven by acquisitions of +25.1% and Organic Net Sales growth of 1.0%. Organic Net Sales growth was driven by favorable price/mix of +4.2%

·     Volta Inc. (VLTA) Q3 EPS ($0.58) vs est. ($0.15) on revenue $8.5M vs est. $10.1M; sees FY revenues $32M-$36M vs est. $34.3M

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     EnerSys (ENS) 2Q adj EPS $1.01 vs est. $1.07 on revs $791.4Mm vs est. $806Mm; guides 3Q adj EPS $0.96-1.06 vs est. $1.31

·     First Solar (FSLR) shares fell after hours – on news the U.S. will not open an investigation into Asian solar companies that critics warned would drive up costs for clean power and escalate tensions with China, as per Bloomberg. The Commerce Department determined that Asian companies did not sell solar cells “at less than normal value,” according to the report

 

Financials

·     Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Q1 revs $269.4M vs. est. $252.2M; Q1 GMV up 8% QoQ to $2.7B; sees year revs $1.225B-$1.250B vs. est. $1.22B; sees year GMV $13.13B-$13.38B; expands network by increasing active merchants from 6,500 to 102,000 and active consumers by 124% to 8.7M YoY

·     Fair Isaac (FICO) 4Q adj EPS $3.92 vs est. $3.13 on revs $335Mm vs est. $347Mm; guides FY22 revs $1.35B vs est. $1.4B, sees adj EPS $14.12 vs est. $13.61

·     LegalZoom (LZ) 3Q adj EPS $0.01 vs est. $0.08 on revs $147.9Mm vs est. $145.4Mm; guides 4Q revs $142-146Mm vs est. $143.6Mm; sees FY revs $575-579Mm vs est. $571.8Mm and adj EBITDA $45-47Mm vs est. $56.9Mm

·     Marqeta, Inc. (MQ) Q3 revenue rose 56% Yoy to $132M (vs est. $119.5M), total processing volume rose +60% to $27.6B; guides Q4 revenue $134M-$139M vs est. $126.3M

·     Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) shares rise 15%; 3Q EPS ($0.09) vs est. $(0.17) on revs $2.3B vs est. $2B; guides 4Q revs $3.1-3.2B vs est. $2.92B

·     Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD) Q3 eps ($0.13) vs est. ($1.04) on revenue $540.3M vs est. $524.15M; sold 1,673 homes from 749 YoY, said over 99% of inventory was held for less than 180 days; raised FY21 outlook for homes sold to 5,800-6,000 from 5,612-6,000, revenue to $1.85B-$1.9B from $1.7B-$1.85B, adj EBITDA to $0-$10M from ($15M)-($6M)

·     SoFi inc. (SOFI) shares rise 12%; Q3 EPS loss (-$0.05) vs. est. loss (-$0.14); Q3 revs rose 35% to $272M vs. est. $251.5M; sees Q4 revenue $272M-$282M vs. est. $274.9M and sees year rev $1.0B-$1.01B vs. est. $979.5M; total products 4.3M, a 108% increase and 5th consecutive quarter of triple-digit annual growth; added 377k new members, as SoFi Money, SoFi Invest, and SoFi Credit Card drove 79% of new member growth; sees annual growth accelerating to +49-55% in Q4 from Q3’s +28%

·     TaskUs Inc. (TASK) Q3 adj EPS $0.30 vs est. $0.32 on revenue $201.1M vs est. $189.9M, sees Q4 revenues $213M-$217M vs est. $194.6M, raised FY revs $view to 747M-$751M from $705M-$709M and above est. $715.6M

·     ZipRecruiter (ZIP) Q3 revenue $212.7M vs est. $188.1M, adj EBITDA $42.5M vs est. $14.3M; sees Q4 revenue $203M-$209M vs est. $171.25M raised full-year guidance given business momentum and a strong hiring environment with job seeking activity still below pre-pandemic levels as it now sees FY21 revenue $724M-$730M (est. $667.5M) from $651M-$665M, adj EBITDA $93M-$99M (est. $38.6M) from $30M-$38M

 

Healthcare

·     American Well (AMWL) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.20) vs. est. loss (-$0.24); Q3 revs $62.2M vs. est. $65.3M; Gross margins of 43% of revenue compared to 33% last year; total active providers of approximately 80,000 at the end of Q3 vs. 71,000 last quarter and 62,000 last year; cuts FY21 revenue guidance to $246M-$253M from $252M-$262M and sees AMG visit volume at the lower quartile of the range

·     Clearside Biomedical (CLSD) 3Q EP ($0.08) vs est. ($0.09) on revs $3.1Mm vs est. $2.6Mm

·     GoodRx Holdings, Inc. (GDRX) 3Q adj EPS $0.09 vs est. $0.09 on revs $195.1Mm vs est. $194.9Mm, qtrly monthly active consumers 6.4Mm; guides FY revs $744-754Mm vs est. $748.3Mm

·     Green Thumb industries (GTBIF) Q3 EPS 8c vs est. 10c on revenue $233.7M vs est. $213.3M; retail comp sales +14% YoY, +1% sequentially

·     Hims & Hers Health, Inc., (HIMS) 3Q EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.06) on revs $74.2Mm vs est. $70.5Mm; guides 4Q revs $76-78Mm vs est. $70.1Mm, sees FY revs $263-265Mm vs est. $253.9Mm

·     Oscar Health (OSCR) Q3 EPS loss ($1.02) vs. est. loss (-$0.66); Q3 revs $443.98M; Direct policy premiums of $895.4 million, a 53.1% increase YoY; premiums earned of $441.7 million, a 345.6% increase YoY; Medical Loss Ratio of 99.7%, increased 920 bps YoY

·     Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XENE) 3Q EPS ($0.36) vs est. ($0.38) on revs $8.1Mm vs est. $10.2Mm

·     Yield10 Bioscience, Inc. (YTEN) 3Q EPS ($0.49) vs est. ($0.65) on revs $92K vs est. $207K; says present capital resources expected to fund ops into 2Q23

 

Media & Telecom

·     Walt Disney (DIS) Q4 EPS $0.37 vs. est. $0.47; Q3 revs $18.53B vs. est. $18.78B; as of quarter-end, Disney+ paid subscribers were 118.1M; as of quarter-end ESPN+ paid subscribers were 17.1M; quarter-end, total Hulu paid subscribers were 43.8M; 179M total subscriptions across our DTC portfolio at end of fiscal 2021 and 60% subscriber growth year-over-year for Disney+

·     AppLovin (APP) Q3 eps 0c vs est. 10c on revenue $727M vs est. $697.8M, organic revenue +58% YoY, business software platform rev +385% YoY; said its MoPub acquisition is expected to contribute $240M-$260M in annual software revenue

·     Bumble (BMBL) 3Q EPS ($0.06) vs est. $0.00 on revs $200.5Mm vs est. $198.8Mm (app revs $142Mm, paying users increased to 2.9Mm, total ARPU $22.97 vs $19.38); guides 4Q revs $208-211 vs est. $206Mm, raises FY revs $765-768Mm vs est. $761.6Mm

 

Technology

·     Brooks Automation (BRKS) 4Q adj EPS $0.78 vs est. $0.77 on revs $137Mm; guides 1Q adj EPS $0.04-0.12

·     ContextLogic Inc. (WISH) Q3 EPS (10c) vs est. (15c) on revenue $368M vs est. $353.6M; CEO Piotr Szulczewski will be stepping down; is not providing official Q4 guidance but expects revenue to be lower than Q3 despite the holidays, primarily driven by ongoing reduction in ad spend, and said October revenue is down ~20% vs avg Q3 monthly revenue

·     Cricut Inc. (CRCT) shares slide -15%; Q3 EPS $0.13 vs. est. $0.16; Q3 revs rose 24.4% to $260.1M vs. est. $256.8M; connected machine revenue was $102.5 million, up 35.7% YoY; subscriptions revenue was $53.3 million, up 70.8% YoY; Accessories and materials revenue was $104.3 million, up 2.0% YoY; gross margin was 39.2%, down from 42.8% YoY

·     Digi international (DGII) 4Q adj EPS $0.25 vs est. $0.08 on revs $79.1Mm vs est. $77.2Mm; guides FY22 revs +16-32% vs est. +8.3%

·     Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Q3 EPS (98c) vs est. (96c) on revenue $63.6M vs est. $60.4M; qtrly subscription bookings $55.4M (+64%), paid subscribers rose +49% to 2.2M at qtr-end, MAUs of 41.7M and DAUs of 9.8M were both records; sees Q4 total bookings$79M-$82M, revenue $66.5M-$69.5M vs est. $65.65M. full-year revs $244M-$247M vs est. $240.4M

·     Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.49) vs. est. loss (-$0.43); Q3 revs rose 16% to $29.9M vs. est. $31.5M; sees FY revs $124M-$134M vs. est. $138.5M

·     Weave Communications (WEAV) 5.0M share IPO priced at $24.00