Early Look

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

After finishing in positive territory for a 5^th straight closing day on Monday, S&P futures are edging slightly lower as investors await a handful of Fed speakers today and key inflation the next two days (CPPI, PPI). Dow component Home Depot (HD) reported better than expected earnings and guidance this morning, lifting shares. Chinese companies’ U.S.-listed shares fall in premarket trade on worries a China hawk will be appointed as top U.S. diplomat and take a hard line on trade and tariffs. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -157 points to 39,376, the Shanghai Index dropped -48 points to 3,421, and the Hang Seng Index declined -580 points to 19,846. In Europe, the German DAX is down -170 points to 19,278, while the FTSE 100 is down -78 points to 8,046. It was another banner day for U.S. stock markets on Monday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record high close above 44,000 and the S&P 500 (SPX) closed above 6,000, led by strength in financials and consumer discretionary names, adding to last week gains on optimism about Republican President-elect Donald Trump’s expected fiscal policies. The small-cap Russell 2000 hit a 52-week high, near its best level since November 2021 as smaller companies are viewed as potential beneficiaries from Trump’s proposed tax cuts and expected looser regulations. The S&P 500 has rallied almost 4% since Trump’s victory last Tuesday, while the Nasdaq has gained almost 5%. Crypto stocks rallied on Monday as Bitcoin prices came within a few dollars of $90,000 boosting shares of MSTR, COIN, and others – but have since pulled back to $87K. Dow Transports hit record highs as well, while technology took a breather as chip stocks declined (SOX). The euro dropped to its lowest level in nearly seven months against the U.S. dollar on Monday, weighed down by investor worries about possible tariffs by a new White House administration which could hurt the euro area’s economy. Treasury yields rise as bond markets reopen from holiday.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 304.14 points, or 0.69%, to 44,293.13.
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 11.99 points, or 0.06%, to 19,298.76.
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 35.34 points, or 1.47% to 2,434.98.

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                Fed’s Waller Speaks at Banking Conference
• 10:15 AM ET                Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Baltimore
• 2:00 PM ET                   Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data
• 5:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Harker Speaks on Fintech, AI
• 5:30 PM ET                   Fed’s Barkin Repeats Speech, followed with Q&A

• Earnings After the Close: AIRG AMBC AMPS BW BZFD CART CATX CAVA CHGG CLSD DAVE DNA DOX DSP EARN EGAN ETON FGEN GOVX GRPN GRWG HNST HPP IAS ICUI KODK LIDR LNW LXRX MAPS MARA MODG MRCC NTRA OXY PAY PGNY PLBY PUBM PXLW RKLB RLGT RPAY RXT SGMO SIBN SNCR SOUN SSTI SWKS TTGT VYGR WULF ZI

• JMP Securities Financial Services Conference, 11/12, in New York
• RBC Capital Precious Metals Conference 11/12, in London
• Truist Internet Growth Summit (virtual), 11/11-11/14

• Alibaba Group (BABA) said it recorded “robust growth” in sales and a “record number” of shoppers over this year’s Singles’ Day sales period, a weeks-long event that ended at midnight on Monday. The firm did not release total sales revenue for the period but said 45 brands each surpassed 1 billion yuan ($138.62 million) in gross merchandising value (GMV).
• Live Nation (LYV) Q3 adj operating income $909.8M vs. est. $856.6M; Q3 revs fell -6.2% y/y to $7.65B vs. est. $7.78B; Q3 concert revs fell -5.6% y/y to $6.58B vs. est. $6.74B; ticketing revs miss falling -17% y/y to $694M vs. est. $752M; 144 million tickets sold for 2024 Live Nation concerts through October, up 3%.
• On Holding (ONON) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of CHF 0.16, missing estimate of CHF 0.20; Q3 sales were CHF$635.8M vs. est. CHF$617.3M; raises FY sales forecast to at least CHF 2.29 bln ($2.60 bln) vs CHF 2.26 bln projected earlier; Quarterly selling, general and administrative expenses rise 36% to CHF 312.7 mln, owing to company’s investments in expansion and partnership.
• Viking Holdings (VIK) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley, noting that demand for cruises remains robust.

• Trane Technologies (TT) and Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) announced a strategic collaboration aimed at optimizing commercial building design for sustainability.

• Assured Guaranty (AGO) Q3 adj operating EPS $2.42 vs. est. $1.42; Q2 revs fell -33% y/y to $269M vs. est. $212M; Q3 gross written premiums rose 53% y/y to $61M
• Cohen & Steers, Inc. (CNS) reported preliminary assets under management of $89.7 billion as of October 31, 2024, a decrease of $2.0 billion from assets under management of $91.8 billion at September 30, 2024. The decrease was due to market depreciation of $2.3 billion and distributions of $150 million.
• Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,772.0B, a decrease of 1.3% versus the previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $2.0B in the month. Non-management fee earning net outflows were $0.2B and money market net outflows were $1.8B. AUM was negatively impacted by unfavorable market returns which decreased AUM by $13B.
• James River Group (JRVR) Q3 E&S segment gross written premium growth was 6% and positive renewal rate change of 8.6%. While the segment reported a 136.1% combined ratio, the current accident year combined ratio for the segment was 92.6%; Q3 gross written premiums $330.4M.
• RMR Group (RMR) Q4 adj EPS $0.34 vs est. $0.40, adj EBITDA $21.849Mm vs est. $21.58Mm.
• Robinhood (HOOD) October statistics showed: Funded customers at the end of October were 24.4M. Assets under custody at the end of October were $159.7B. Net deposits were $5.2B in October, translating to a 41% annualized growth rate relative to September 2024 AUC. Over the last twelve months, net deposits were $43.2B, translating to an annual growth rate of 51% relative to October 2023 AUC. Equity notional trading volumes were $126.4B. Options contracts traded were 158M. Crypto notional trading volumes were $5.6B.
• Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) Assets Under Management (AUM) of $172.3 billion, Other Assets of $4.2 billion, and Total Client Assets of $176.5 billion, as of October 31, 2024. For the month of October, average Total AUM was $175.0 billion, average Other Assets was $4.6 billion, and average Total Client Assets was $179.6 billion.

• AstraZeneca (AZN) raised its full-year guidance after Q3 results topped analysts’ expectations, boosted by its cancer and diabetes medicines, and laid out plans for a multibillion-dollar investment in the U.S.; now expects both its 2024 core earnings per share and total revenue to grow by a high teens percentage, from a mid-teens percentage previously, both at constant currencies.
• Bayer (BAYRY) shares fall after saying weak agricultural markets mean its earnings are likely to fall further next year; the company said it expected “a muted outlook on top and bottom-line next year with likely declining earnings”.
• Neurogene (NGNE) shares tumbled; reports positive interim efficacy data from the first four low-dose pediatric participants in NGN-401 gene therapy clinical trial for Rett Syndrome; shares fell after a disclosure indicated an emerging serious adverse event in a trial participant for the experimental Rett syndrome drug.
• Nevro Corp. (NVRO) Q3 EPS ($0.41) vs est. ($0.81), adj EBITDA $(1.8Mm) vs est. $(8.59Mm) on revs $96.9Mm vs est. $93.07Mm; guides FY revs $400-405Mm vs est. $402.55Mm and adj EBITDA $(16Mm)-$(18Mm) vs prior $(20Mm)-$(18Mm) and est. $(24.94Mm).
• Stereotaxis Inc. (STXS) Q3 EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.05) on revs $9.196Mm vs est. $7.1Mm; reiterates FY guide for revs approx flat yr/yr vs est. -0.8%.

• Intevac Inc. (IVAC) Q3 adj EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.15), adj op Inc ($1.8)Mm vs est. ($4.33)Mm on revs $28.5Mm vs est. $11.5Mm.
• Okta (OKTA) was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank.
• Sea Limited (SE) Q3 EPS $0.24 vs. est. $0.26; Q3 revs $4.3B vs. est. $4.08B.
• Zeta Global (ZETA) Q3 adj EBITDA $53.6Mm vs est. $49.93Mm on revs $268Mm vs est. $252.5Mm; guides Q4 revs $293-297Mm vs est. $268.82Mm and adj EBITDA $64.9-66.9Mm vs est. $59.32Mm.