Morning Preview: November 13, 2024

Early Look

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-110.00

0.25%

43,964

S&P 500

-13.25

0.22%

5,999

Nasdaq

-50.50

0.24%

21,139

 

 

Stock futures look lower after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished with modest losses on Tuesday, while the Dow Jones Industrials and Russell 2000 underperformed amid a rise on Treasury yields and the dollar, as Wall Street awaits inflation data. Treasuries are little changed following Tuesday’s sharp selloff ahead of key US inflation data due later Wednesday as the 10-year yield falls 1 bp to 4.41%. The October CPI data is due at 8:30 AM ET, with estimates for headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M for October to rise est. +0.2% (prior +0.2%) and Y/Y est. +2.6% (prior +2.4%). On a core reading or CPI (ex: food & energy) M/M for October is est. to rise +0.3% (prior +0.3%) and Y/Y to rise +3.3% (prior +3.3%). A strong CPI reading could push out the widely anticipated December rate cut, while a “cooler” reading could accelerate rate cuts by the Fed. The US dollar topped 155 against the Japanese yen for the first time since July, raising the risk that Japan will intervene in the currency market to try to slow the depreciation. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled -654 points to 38,721, the Shanghai Index rose 17 points to 3,439, and the Hang Seng Index dipped -23 points to 19,823. In Europe, the German DAX is up 17 points to 19,051, while the FTSE 100 is up a few points to 8,028.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index dipped -17.36 points, or 0.29%, to 5,983.99.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -382.15 points, or 0.86%, to 43,910.98.
  • The Nasdaq Composite slipped -17.36 points, or 0.09%, to 19,281.40.
  • The Russell 2000 Index declined -43.13 points, or 1.77% to 2,391.85.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) M/M for October…est. +0.2% (prior +0.2%)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y for October…est. +2.6% (prior +2.4%)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Core CPI (ex: food & energy) M/M for October…est. +0.3% (prior +0.3%)
  • 8:30 AM ET                  Core CPI (ex: food & energy) Y/Y for October…est. +3.3% (prior +3.3%)
  • 9:45 AM ET                  Fed’s Logan Gives Opening Remarks at Energy Conference
  • 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for October
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy
  • 1:30 PM ET                   Fed’s Schmid Gives Keynote Remarks at Energy Conference

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: BETR BKKT BWEN FULC GFF LQDA MRSN PET SNDA SSYS VERO XFOR
  • Earnings After the Close: ATEX BV BZH CAPR CSCO DGII ECOR GLAD HI HP ICAD IDN LVLU OTRK SONO TARS TTEK WYY

Other Key Events:

  • CNBC Delivering Alpha event
  • Deutsche Bank Gaming, Lodging, Leisure & Restaurant One on One Conference, 11/13-11/14, in Miami, FL
  • JP Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference, 11/13-11/14, in New York
  • Sidoti Micro-Cap Virtual Conference, 11/13-11/14
  • Truist Internet Growth Summit (virtual), 11/11-11/14

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

0.56

68.68

Brent

0.56

72.45

Gold

9.10

2,615.40

EUR/USD

-0.001

1.0613

JPY/USD

0.41

155.00

10-Year Note

-0.006

4.428%

 

World News

  • President-elect Donald Trump’s announced new cabinet appointments late yesterday. Trump nominated Fox News host Pete Hegseth as his defense secretary, while Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a new Department of Government Efficiency. John Ratcliffe for Director of CIA; Mike Huckabee US Ambassador to Israel: Steven Witkoff special envoy to Middle East; William McGinley WH Counsel; Krist Noem Homeland Secretary.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • CAVA Group (CAVA) Q3 EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.11 and sales rose 39% y/y to $243.8M vs est. $233.6M; Q3 EBITDA $34M vs est. $29M; guides FY Restaurant Comp Sales 12.5% (from 8.5% to 9.5% expected earlier) vs est. 10% and EBITDA $123M vs est. $117M; lifts target for net new restaurant openings and restaurant-level profit margin.
  • Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Q3 adjusted ebitda +74% to $450 million, revenue +27% to $3.25 billion, average monthly players (amp) +16%; raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA and revenue by 1% and now sees 2024 core profit rising by 35% year on year and revenue by 22% at the midpoints of its guidance.
  • Instacart (CART) Q3 EPS $0.42 vs. est. $0.22; Q3 revs $852M vs. est. $844M; Q3 gross transaction value (GTV) $8.30B vs. est. $8.19B; guides Q4 adj ebitda $230M-4240M vs. est. $243.2M; sees Q4 GTV $8.50B-$8.65B below est. $10.2B; authorized $250 mln increase to buyback program.
  • Light & Wonder (LNW) Q3 net income $64M vs. est. $100.7M; Q3 revs $817M vs. est. $821.21M; said delivered 9th consecutive quarter of double-digit consolidated revenue growth year-over-year.
  • Rivian: Co (RIVN) and Volkswagen Group (VWAGY) entered transaction agreement to create new joint venture – “Rivian and VW group technology, LLC; Volkswagen group plans to invest up to $5.8B in Co & JV by 2027.
  • Spirit Airlines’ (SAVE) shares plunged over -60% after a report the U.S. carrier is preparing to file for bankruptcy protection, while the company said it is in talks with creditors.
  • Tesla (TSLA) said it was recalling 2,431 Cybertruck electric pickup trucks in the United States as loss of drive power could increase the risk of a crash, in its sixth such move this year.
  • TopGolf Callaway Brands (MODG) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.02) vs. est. loss (-$0.16); Q3 adj Ebitda $119.8M vs. est. $101.2M; Q3 revs $1.01B vs. est. $983M; lowered full year 2024 revenue guidance to approximately $4.2B (from $4.2B-$4.26B) and Adjusted EBITDA to a range of $560 to $570M (from $570M-$590M).

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Q3 adj EPS $1.00 vs. est. $0.74 as higher production from the $12 billion CrownRock acquisition offset lower prices; Q3 production was up 15.7% at 1.41 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboepd) from the previous year; guides Q4 total production 1.43-1.470M Mboepd vs. est. 1.445M.
  • Rocket Labs (RKLB) Q3 EPS ($0.10) vs est. ($0.11) on revs $104.808Mm vs est. $102.28Mm; guides Q4 revs $125-135Mm vs est. $121.92Mm, adj gr mgn 32-34%, adj EBITDA ($29)Mm – ($27)Mm vs est. ($28.31)Mm; signs multi-launch contract for neutron with confidential commercial satellite constellation operator.
  • DHT Holdings (DHT) Q3 EPS $0.22 vs est. $0.20, adj EBITDA $70.4Mm vs est. $66.4Mm on adj revs $92.64Mm vs est. $94.19Mm.

Financials

  • AllianceBernstein L.P. (AB) announced that preliminary assets under management decreased to $793 billion during October 2024 from $806 billion at the end of September. The 2% decrease in month-end AUM was entirely driven by market depreciation, as firmwide net flows were flat in October.
  • MARA Holdings (MARA) Q3 total revenue rose 34% y/y to $131.6M vs. est. $137.5M.
  • Paymentus Holdings (PAY) Q3 EPS $0.15 vs. est. $0.09; Q3 revs $231.6M vs. est. $190.6M; guides Q4 revenue $215M-$220M, above consensus $203.6M and sees Q4 adjusted EBITDA $22M-$24M; sees FY24 revenue $829M-$834M, vs. consensus $776.6M.
  • Rocket Companies (RKT) Q3 adj EPS $0.08 vs est. $0.08, adj EBITDA $286Mm vs est. $272.33Mmon adj revs $1.323B vs est. $1.285B; sees Q4 adj revs $1.05-1.2B vs est. $1.362B.
  • TeraWulf Inc. (WULF) Q3 adj EBITDA $6Mm vs est. $11.2Mm on revs $27.1Mm vs est. $34.28Mm.

Healthcare

  • Amgen (AMGN) said it does not see an association between the administration of its experimental weight-loss drug MariTide and bone mineral density changes. Early-stage study results do not suggest any bone safety concern or change our conviction in the promise of MariTide – AMGN (note the stock fell as much as 7% on Tuesday after brokerage Cantor said the obesity drug showed a 4% bone mineral density loss in an early-stage trial data).
  • ICU Medical (ICUI) Q3 adj EPS $1.59 vs est. $1.25, adj EBITDA $94.8Mm vs est. $90.03Mm on revs $589.131Mm vs est. $574.7Mm, gr mgn 34.8%; guides FY adj EPS $5.40-5.70 vs prior $4.95-5.35 and est. $5.22, sees adj EBITDA $355-365Mm vs prior $345-365Mm and est. $357.21Mm
  • Natera Inc. (NTRA) Q3 EPS ($0.26) vs est. ($0.57) on revs $439.8Mm vs est. $361.45Mm; guides FY revs $1.61-1.64B vs est. $1.518B, gr mgn approx 58-61%, SG&A approx $775-825Mm and R&D $375-400Mm.
  • Progyny, Inc. (PGNY) Q3 EPS $0.11 vs est. $0.13, adj EBITDA $46.478Mm vs est. $49.6Mm on revs $286.625Mm vs est. $296.88Mm; guides FY revs $1.135-1.15B vs est. $1.171B and adj EBITDA $189-194Mm vs est. $202.8Mm.
  • Sangamo Biosciences (SGMO) Q3 EPS $0.04 vs est. ($0.03) on revs $49.41Mm vs est. $17.94Mm; guides FY adj op exp $125-145Mm.
  • Syros (SYRS) shares tumble -80% overnight after announces topline data from select-mds-1 phase 3 trial of tamibarotene in higher-risk myelodysplastic syndrome with rara gene overexpression; select-mds-1 did not meet its primary endpoint; said to discontinue study and review full data set.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • Amdocs (DOX) Q4 adj EPS $1.70 in-line with consensus on revs $1.264B vs. est. $1.263B.
  • ePlus (PLUS) Q2 adj EPS $1.36 vs est. $1.39 on revs $515.2Mm vs est. $576.5Mm; guides FY sales like prior year, adj EBITDA $195-205Mm vs est. $205.63Mm.
  • Integral As Science (IAS) Q3 EPS $0.10 vs est. $0.07, adj EBITDA $50.6Mm vs est. $48.86Mm on revs $133.528Mm vs est. $138.11Mm, gr mgn 80%; guides Q4 revs $148-150Mm vs est. $159.42Mm, adj EBITDA $55-57Mm vs est. $54.94Mm, sees FY revs $525-527Mm vs est. $540.91Mm and adj EBITDA $185-187Mm vs est. $178.6Mm.
  • SoundHound AI (SOUN) Q3 adj EPS ($0.04) vs est. ($0.07) on revs $25.1Mm vs est. $23.02Mm, adj gr mgn 60%; guides FY24 revs $82-85Mm vs est. $82.57Mm and FY25 revs $155-175Mm vs est. $152.12Mm.
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) Q4 adj EPS $1.55 vs est. $1.52, adj op Inc $273Mm vs est. $272.1Mm on revs $1.025B vs est. $1.021B; guides Q1 revs $1.05-1.08B vs est. $1.096B and adj EPS $1.57 vs est. $1.72.
  • Spotify (SPOT) Q3 revenue rose a less-than-expected 19% to EU3.99B, missing estimates of EU4.02B, driven by weakness in digital advertising market; Q3 profit margin increased to 31.1% from 29.2% in prior quarter; guides Q4 revs EU4.1B vs. est. EU4.26B; Q4 operating income EU481M vs. est. EU445.7M; Q4 total MAUs 665M vs. est. 664M; expects to add about 8M premium subscribers in the quarter, which would take the total to 260M.
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) said it is unable to file its quarterly report on form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2024 in a timely manner, amid its ongoing delay in filing an annual report.
  • ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI) Q3 adj EPS $0.28 vs est. $0.22, adj op Inc $111.7Mm vs est. $107.1Mm on revs $303.6Mm vs est. $299.38Mm; guides Q4 revs $296-299Mm vs est. $296.87Mm and adj EPS $0.22-0.23 vs est. $0.23.

_________________________________________________________________

Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.