Early Look

Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	91.00	0.27%	33,652
S&P 500	26.25	0.67%	3,992
Nasdaq	132.50	1.13%	11,867

 

 

U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, with S&P back near the 4,000 level after a late day swoon took it as low as 3,966, well off its earlier 4,017.50 highs (its best level since Sept 2^nd), ahead of another round of key inflation data today (Oct PPI at 8:30) and key earnings in retail with Wal-Mart and Home Depot due. Home improvement retail Home Depot has already posted results, beating on the top, bottom-line and improved comps, but inventory headlines weigh on shares early. Stocks ended lower and Treasury yields rose Monday as investors mulled the first of a series of expected comments due this week from the US central bank. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said that it would be appropriate “soon” for the central bank to slow its pace of interest-rate hikes, which signaled to some investors that she favors a half-point hike as early as next month. But Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish comments over the weekend wobbled markets earlier downplaying last week’s softer-expected CPI report, noting it is just one data point. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 26 points to 27,990, the Shanghai Index jumped 50 points to 3,134, and the Hang Seng Index surged 723 points or 4.11% to settle at 18,343. In Europe, the German DAX is down -25 points to 14,285, while the FTSE 100 is down a few points to 7,380. Bitcoin an early bounce up 2% at $16,700, while the dollar/yields slip.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index slipped -35.68 points, or 0.89%, to 3,957.25

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -211.16 points, or 0.63%, to 33,536.70

·     The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -127.11 points, or 1.12%, to 11,196.22

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -21.49 points, or 1.14% to 1,861.25

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:45 AM ET            ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

·     8:30 AM ET            Empire NY Fed manufacturing or November…est. (-5.0)

·     8:30 AM ET            Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m for October…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET            Producer Price Index (PPI) y/y for October…est. +8.3%

·     8:30 AM ET            PPI core – Ex: Food & Energy m/m for October…est. +0.3%

·     8:30 AM ET            PPI core – Ex: Food & Energy y/y for October…est. +7.25      

·     8:55 AM ET            Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

·     9:00 AM ET            Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook

·     10:00 AM ET          Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks Before Senate Panel

·     4:30 PM ET             API Weekly Inventory Data

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: BERY BKYI DNUT ECC ENR HD NAVB ONEW VVV WMT

·     Earnings After the Close: AAP AREC ATRO IBEX LVLU NVGS QUIK VREX

 

Other Key Events:

·     Citigroup FinTech Conference, 11/14-11/15, in NY

·     Credit Suisse Equity Forum, 11/15-11/17, in Switzerland

·     Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 57^th Annual Financial Conference, 11/13-11/15, in Hollywood, FL

·     Piper Battery Summit, 11/14-11/16, in Palo Alto, CA

·     REITWorld 2022 Annual Conference, 11/15-11/17, in San Francisco, CA

·     Stifel healthcare Conference, 11/15-11/16, in NY

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.43	85.44
Brent	-0.41	92.73
Gold	2.30	1,779.20
EUR/USD	0.0099	1.0424
JPY/USD	-0.72	139.15
10-Year Note	-0.062	3.805%

 

 

World News

·     China’s Jan-October nationwide fixed-asset investment increased by 5.8% y/y to 47.14 trillion yuan, recovered by 0.12% m/m. The investments in mining rose 8.1% y/y in the first 10 months, and the manufacturing industry added 9.7% y/y.

·     China’s Oct total retail sales were at 4.03 trillion yuan, -0.5% y/y or -0.68% m/m. Among them, retail sales of goods were 3.61 trillion yuan, which dropped by 0.5% y/y; The total revenue for the catering industry was 410 billion yuan, down 8.1%

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Home Depot (HD) Q3 EPS $4.24 vs. est. $4.13; Q3 revs $38.87B vs. est. $38.01B; Q3 comp sales rose +4.3% vs. est. for +3.1% and comparable sales in the U.S. increased +4.5%; reaffirmed its fiscal 2022 comparable sales growth forecast of about 3%; said merchandise inventories of $25.72 billion was down 1.4% from the end of July but up 25.0% from a year ago

·     F45 training (FXLV) 3Q adj EBITDA $6.1Mm vs est. $4.8Mm on revs $29.3Mm vs est. $25.2Mm, comps +16% globally and +11% US; guides FY revs $120-130Mm, adj EBITDA $25-30Mm vs est. $23.6Mm

·     Nerdy (NRDY) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.21) vs. est. loss (-$0.29); Q3 revs $31.8M vs. est. $31.8M; said remain confident in becoming profitable by end of 2023; guides Q4 revs $39M-$41M and year revs $160M-$162M

·     ThredUp (TDUP) 3Q EPS ($0.24) vs est. ($0.22) on revs $67.9Mm vs est. $65.2Mm, adj EBITDA ($11Mm) vs est. ($11.2Mm); guides 4Q revs $62-64Mm vs est. $71.2Mm, gross margin 62-64%, adj EBITDA margin -16.5% to -14.5%

·     PlayAGS (AGS) announces offering of 8.21M shares of common stock for holders

·     Portillo’s (PTLO) 8M share Spot Secondary priced at $22.90

 

Energy

·     Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS) Q3 adj EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.08; Q3 revs rose 52% y/y to $90.8M vs. est. $83.1M; raising low end of 2022 outlook to reflect recent performance and improving business conditions; sees year revs $310M-$325M vs. est. $312.7Mand FY adjusted net income to be in range of $48M-$53M

·     Carl Icahn raises shared share stake in Southwest Gas Holdings Inc. (SWX) by 29.6% to 6.61 mln shares, according to 13F filing

·     Oil inventories in developed nations have sunk to the lowest since 2004, leaving global markets vulnerable as sanctions on Russian exports take effect, according to the International Energy Agency

·     Corteva (CTVA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital

 

Financials

·     Capital One Financial (COF) Oct domestic credit card net charge-offs rate 2.93 % vs 2.23% in sept; 30+ day performing delinquencies rate for domestic credit card 3.17% at Oct end vs 2.97% at sept end; 30+ day performing delinquencies rate for auto 5.29% at Oct end vs 4.85% at sept end

·     Discover Financial Services (DFS) credit card delinquency rate 1.17% at Oct end vs 1.12% at Sept end and credit card charge-off rate 1.17% at Oct end vs 1.14% at Sept end

·     Berkshire Hathaway Inc takes share stake of 433,558 shares in Jefferies Financial Group (JEF)

·     Mastercard (MA) enters five-year unsecured $8B revolving credit pact

·     Chubb (CB) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities

 

Healthcare

·     Azenta In. (AZTA) approves $1.5B share repurchase program; 4Q adj EPS $0.16 vs est. $0.07 on revs $138Mm vs est. $133.7Mm; sees 1Q revs $175-190Mm vs est. $163Mm and adj EPS $0.08-0.16 vs est. $0.09

·     Black Diamond Therapeutics Inc (BDTX) files for mixed shelf of up to $500 mln

·     Fortress Biotech (FBIO) 3Q adj EPS ($0.08) vs est. ($0.27) on revs $16.1Mm vs est. $20.8Mm

·     Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.41) vs. est. loss (-$0.30); Q3 revenue fell -14% y/y to $66.4M vs. est. $60.36M; revised its expectation for total revenue from $425M-$440M to $460M-$480M in 2022; end of quarter cash of over $1.3B provides continued financial flexibility

·     ImmunoGen Inc. (IMGN) shares rose after saying the FDA granted accelerated approval for elahere

·     Neximmune Inc (NEXI) to initiate workforce reduction plan to reduce headcount by about 30%

·     Neoleukin (NLTX) reported 3Q earnings that included a strategic de-prioritization of lead asset NL-201.

·     Pear Therapeutics (PEAR) 3Q EPS ($0.22) vs est. ($0.21) on revs $4.1Mm vs est. $4.0Mm; approves workforce reduction by about 22% of total workforce

·     Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo

 

Industrials & Materials

·     Arcimoto (FUV) 3Q EPS ($0.38) vs est. ($0.30) on revs $2Mm vs est. $3.37Mm; announces board approval for reverse stock split ratio one-for-20 with effective date November 29 at 5:01pm EST

·     Ammo Inc. (POWW) 2Q adj EPS $0.05 vs est. $0.04 on revs $48.3Mm vs est. $63.6Mm; guides FY revs $220-240Mm vs est. $295.1Mm and EBITDA $30-40Mm vs est. $90Mm

·     Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK/A) takes share stake of 5.8M shares in Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Sea Limited (SEA) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.66) vs. est. loss ($1.09); Q3 revs $3.2B vs. est. $3B; lowers FY22 bookings view to $2.6B-$2.8B from $2.9B-$3.1B; Q3 E-commerce revenue $1.98B vs. est. $1.87B

·     Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) raises share stake in Paramount Global (PARA) by 16.3% to 91.2 mln Class B common shares

·     Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) to its investments in the third quarter, according to a 13F

·     Pinterest (PINS): Elliott investment management LP raises share stake to 15 mln Class A shares from 5 mln Class A shares

·     Cardlytics (CDLX) said committed to and effectuated a plan of termination of 51 employees; terminations based on cost-reduction initiatives intended to reduce operating expenses and allow co to focus on key growth priorities; expects that substantially all charges will be incurred in Q4, reduction in force will be substantially complete by the Q1’23

·     IonQ (IONQ) 3Q EPS ($0.12) vs est. ($0.11) on revs $2.8Mm vs est. $2.8Mm, maintains FY guide