Early Look

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

After 3 weeks of consecutive gains, and a strong start yesterday, US futures pause overnight, down modestly along with mixed European markets and slightly lower Asian markets. The S&P 500, like the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been up for three straight weeks through Friday’s close, rising 9.6% over that time. That is its largest three-week point and percentage gains since April and June 2020, respectively while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.2% Monday to its highest level since January 2022. Momentum to the upside has been strong given a drop in Treasury yields, and as the Dollar Index (DXY) loses ground for a fourth day, holding at 2 ½ month lows as easing bond yields support global risk, while gold prices rise +0.5% back near $1,990 an ounce. Markets await key technology earnings with chip maker NVDA results after the bell. This morning, LOW shares fell after mixed results and lower guidance. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -33 points to 33,354, the Shanghai Index was little changed at 3,067, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -44 points to 17,733. In Europe, the German DAX is up 13 points to 15,915, while the FTSE 100 is down -45 points to 7,450. Another quiet day of economic data with only Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM, but the Fed Minutes from the November meeting is expected around 2:00 PM.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index jumped 33.36 points, or 0.74%, to 4,547.38.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 203.76 points, or 0.58%, to 35,151,04.

·     The Nasdaq Composite surged 159.05 points, or 1.13%, to 14,284.53.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 9.32 points, or 0.52% to 1,807.08.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:45 AM ET                  ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

·     8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales

·     10:00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M for October

·     2:00 PM ET                   FOMC Minutes from the November 1^st policy meeting

·     4:30 PM ET                   API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: ADI AEO ANF BBY BIDU BURL CAL DKS DY HIBB J KSS LOW NJR NTIC

·     Earnings After the Close: ADSK GES HPQ JACK JWN NVDA SOL URBN

World News

·     Inflation is likely to remain “stubborn” and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer than investors anticipate, Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin said. “I see inflation being stubborn and that makes the case for me for being higher for longer,” Barkin said in comments to Fox Business. In conversations with business contacts Barkin said that “half of them are telling me they’re taking prices up at higher than pre-Covid levels.”

·     The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) surprised with setting the morning USDCNY fix at 7.1406, its lowest since August, against the market estimates of 7.1682.

·     EU new car registrations rose 14.6% in October to 855,484 units.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Lowe’s (LOW) Q3 adj EPS $3.27 vs. est. $3.03; Q3 revs $20.47B vs. est. $20.88B; Q3 comp store sales fell (-7.4%) vs. est. (-4.9%); cuts FY23 EPS view to $13.00 from $13.20-$13.60 (est. $13.32), lowers FY23 revenue view to $86B from $87B-$89B (est. $87.55B) and cuts FY23 comparable sales view to down 5% from down 2%-4%.

·     Hibbett Inc. (HIBB) Q3 EPS $2.05 vs. est. $1.18; Q3 sales $431.9M vs. est. $416.7M; Q3 comp sales (-2.7%) vs. est. (-6.18%), but down from y/y +9.9%; E-commerce sales as share of total sales 17% vs. 15% y/y; still forecasts 2024 comp sales down low-single digit.

·     Central Garden & Pet (CENTA) Q4 adj EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.07; Q4 revs $750M vs. est. $735.07M; sees FY24 adj EPS $2.50 or better vs. est. $2.89; expects fiscal 2024 capital spending to be approximately $70M.

·     Fisker (FSR) said it received notice from the NYSE that the company wasn’t in compliance with the exchange’s continued listing standards due to failure to timely file its 10-Q with the SEC.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Dycom (DY) Q3 adj EPS $2.82 vs. est. $1.75; Q3 revs $1.14B vs. est. $1.07B; Q3 adj EBITDA $166.8M, rising +46% y/y, vs. est. $125.9M

·     Jacobs (J) Q4 EPS $1.90 vs. est. $1.87; Q4 revs $4.29B vs. est. $4.13B; Q4 backlog increased $1.2B to $29.1B, up 4% year-over-year; sees FY24 adjusted EPS $7.70-$8.20, vs. consensus $8.40 and sees FY24 adjusted EBITDA $1.53B-$1.6B.

·     TechnipFMC (FTI) announced an agreement to sell the company’s Measurement Solutions business to One Equity Partners for $205M in cash.

·     Exelon (EXC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuo due to concerns over the Illinois regulatory environment.

Healthcare

·     Agilent (A) Q4 adj EPS $1.38 vs. est. $1.34; Q4 revs $1.69B vs. est. $1.67B; sees Q1 adj EPS $1.20-$1.23 below consensus $1.32 on revs $1.555B-$1.605B vs. est. $1.69B; sees FY24 adj EPS $5.44-$5.55 vs est. $5.61 and FY24 revenue $6.71B-$6.81B vs. est. $6.98B.

·     BeiGene (BGNE) said it entered into an agreement with biotech company Ensem Therapeutics to acquire a global license for a cancer therapy that is ready to enter early-stage trial; Ensem will receive an upfront payment and will be eligible for additional payments totaling up to $1.33B on the achievement of certain milestones, in addition to tiered royalties.

·     Medtronic (MDT) Q2 adj EPS $1.25 vs. est. $1.18; Q2 revs rose 5.3% y/y to $7.98B vs. est. $7.916B; sees 2024 adj EPS $5.13-$5.19, vs. prior $5.08-$5.16 and organic revenue +4.75%.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Baidu (BIDU) Q3 EPS $2.80 vs. est. $2.32; Q3 revs $4.72B vs. est. $4.79B; Q3 revs from its iQIYI video-streaming service was up 7% to CNY8B y/y as the average daily number of total subscribing members increased to 107.5M, compared with 101.0M y/y.

·     Keysight Technologies (KEYS) Q4 adj EPS $1.99 vs est. $1.87; Q4 revs $1.31B vs. est. $1.3B; sees Q1 adj EPS $1.53-$1.59 vs. est. $1.67 and sees Q1 revenue $1.235B-$1.255B vs. est. $1.24B.

·     Zoom Video (ZM) Q3 EPS $1.29 vs. est. $1.09; Q3 revs $1.14B vs. est. $1.12B; forecasts Q4 adj EPS $1.13 to $1.15, est. $1.09; increase our full year outlook for revenue and non-GAAP profitability, as well as for free cash flow, which we now expect to be in the range of $1.34B-$1.35B y/y; raises FY24 EPS view to $4.93-$4.95 from $4.63-$4.67.

·     Cloudflare (NET) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer.

·     C3.ai (AI) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer.

·     Elon Musk’s X Corp. sued Media Matters on Monday, claiming the media watchdog group defamed the social-media company last week with a report that pro-Nazi posts were appearing next to ads by major brands. Also Monday, Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton announced an investigation into the left-leaning nonprofit for “potential fraudulent activity.”