Early Look

Thursday, November 21, 2024

After the world awaited key earnings results from semiconductor giant and AI face Nvidia (NVDA) last night for the next potential move in stock markets, overnight futures are about “flat”. NVDA shares were trading down a modest -2% overnight after quarterly results topped consensus but guided next quarter revs range that fell short of Wall Street expectations. Still, shares are generally steady as are major averages. The other story continues to be the surge in Bitcoin, hitting yet another all-time high this morning of $98,000 and is now up 40% since the election 2-weeks ago while MSTR is up another 10% premarket and COIN +3% as the Trump administration is expected to relax regulations and be crypto friendly. U.S. listed China stocks are active on earnings from BIDU, and Temu owner PDD while in software, SNOW is higher after results last night and PANW down slightly. Busy slate of economic data today including jobless claims, Philly Fed Index, Existing Home Sales and Leading index as well as more Fed speakers. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -326 points to 38,026, the Shanghai Index rose 2 points to 3,370, and the Hang Seng Index fell -103 points to 19,601. In Europe, the German DAX is up 50 points to 19,053, while the FTSE 100 is up 30 points to 8,116. The dollar has been rising since the U.S. election on anticipation that proposed tariffs of the Trump administration will likely be inflationary and keep rates higher for longer. The dollar index (DXY) is little changed at 106.64 (off one-year high of 107.07 last week). In macro/geopolitical news, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile during an attack on Ukraine on Thursday, Kyiv’s air force said.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 139.53 points, or 0.32%, to 43,408.47.
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -21.33 points, or 0.11%, to 18,966.14.
• The Russell 2000 Index edged higher 0.69 points, or 0.03% to 2,325.52.

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.873M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for November…est. 8.0 (prior 10.3)
• 8:45 AM ET                  Fed’s Hammack Gives Welcome Remarks
• 10:00 AM ET                Existing Home Sales M/M for October…est. 3.93M (prior 3.84M)
• 10:00 AM ET                Leading Index M/M for October…est. (-0.3%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for November
• 12:25 PM ET                Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A

• Earnings After the Close: BIDU CPRT ESTC GAP GEOS INTU MATW NGVC NTAP ROST UGI

• Needham Virtual tech Week, 11/19-11/21
• Oppenheimer Virtual Internet Bus Tour, 11/21-11/22

• Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile during an attack on Ukraine on Thursday, Kyiv’s air force said. The launch was the latest sign of rapidly mounting tensions in war after Ukraine fired U.S. and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week despite warnings by Moscow that it would see such action as a major escalation.
• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 8.1 vs 21.5 last week. Bulls fall to 41.3% from 49.8%, Neutrals rise to 25.5% from 21.8%, Bears rise to 33.2% from 28.3%.

• BJ Wholesale (BJ) Q3 adj EPS $1.18 vs. est. $0.93; Q3 revs rose +3.5% y/y to $5.1B vs. est. $5.12B; said Q3 membership fees rose 8.4% y/y to $115.0M; said plans to increase membership fee effective Jan. 1, 2025.
• Jack in the Box (JACK) shares fell; Q4 adj EPS $1.16 vs est. $$1.10, adj EBITDA $65.5Mm vs est. $66.93Mm on revs $349.3Mm vs est. $356.47Mm, comps -2.1%; guides FY adj EBITDA $288-303Mm vs est. $311.61Mm and operating EPS $5.05-5.45; forecasts 2025 Jack system comp sales 0% to +1%, vs. est. +0.89%

• Maximus (MMS) Q4 EPS $1.19 on revs rose 4.4% y/y to $1.32B; sees FY25 Revenue is expected to range between $5.275 billion and $5.425 billion. An adjusted EBITDA margin, which excludes divestiture-related charges, of approximately 11.0% is anticipated for the full year.
• W&T (WTI) files prospectus supplement relates to issuance, sale of up to $83M of shares of common stock from time to time.

• Raymond James (RJF) reports October assets under administration $241.1B; client assets under administration grew 25% y/y but declined 2% compared to the preceding month primarily due to lower equity markets in October.
• Universal Technical Institute (UTI) Q4 EPS $0.34 vs est. $0.30 on revs $196.358Mm vs est. $191.39Mm; guides FY25 revs $800-815Mm vs est. $797.42Mm and EPS $0.93-1.01 vs est. $0.94.

• Hookipa Pharma Inc (HOOK) said on November 18, Co approved a plan to reduce workforce by approximately 80% as restructuring plan to begin in Q4 2024, complete by 1H’25; to pause clinical development in eseba-vec program.
• Novartis (NVS) raised its midterm sales guidance on revenue growth of its key treatments and expected drug launches; said ahead of an investor event that it now expects annual currency-adjusted sales to grow by 6% through 2028, previously guided for at least 5%. It anticipates its 2024-2029 annual sales growth at 5% and expects mid-single digit sales growth after 2029. Novartis reiterated its core operating income margin of 40% by 2027.
• Novartis (NVS) is buying gene therapy and neuroscience biotech Kate Therapeutics in a deal worth $1.1 billion in upfront and milestone payments, the Swiss pharma confirmed
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.

• Baidu (BIDU) reported a -3% decline in Q3 revs at 33.56 billion yuan ($4.64 billion), which compared with the 33.43-billion-yuan average estimates; net income climbed 14% to 7.63 billion yuan versus a consensus estimate of 4.67 billion yuan
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) approved a two-for-one forward stock split; Q1 adj EPS $1.56 vs est. $1.48 on revs $2.139B vs est. $2.12B; guides Q2 revs $2.22-2.25B vs est. $2.231B and adj EPS $1.54-1.56 vs est. $1.55; sees FY revs $9.12-9.17B vs est. $9.13B and adj EPS $6.26-6.39 vs est. $6.28.
• PDD Holdings (PDD) shares slid as the Temu owner reported a 44% rise in Q3 revenue, but still fell short of market estimates; said revenue reached 99.35 billion yuan ($13.72 billion) for the three months ended Sept. 30. That compared with the 102.65-billion-yuan average of analyst estimates.
• Snowflake (SNOW) shares rise; Q3 adj EPS $0.20 vs. est. $0.15; Q3 revs rose 28% y/y to $942.1M vs. est. $898.6M; Q3 Product revenue rose 29% y/y to $900.3M vs. est. $856.6M; agrees to acquire open data integration platform, Datavolo; Q3 net revenue retention rate 127% vs. 135% y/y; sees Q4 product revenue $906M-$911M above est. $890.7M; raises FY25 product revenue view to $3.43B from $3.356B and adj operating margin view to 5% from 3%.