Early Look

Monday, October 9, 2023

U.S. stock futures are looking lower, oil prices jump around 4% and gold prices rise about 1% as investors are rattled by geopolitical uncertainty after Hamas launched a surprise weekend attack on Israel. Oil surged more than 4% as the surprise attack on Israel threatened to destabilize the Middle East, adding to other market concerns such as surging Treasury yields on rising interest rate fears, Ukrainian/Russia conflict, and volatile commodity prices. The U.S. stock market is open today for Columbus Day, but the bond market is closed as the federal government is closed. U.S. stock indexes rallied on Friday to finish the volatile trading week in the green. The S&P 500 advanced a modest 0.5% for the week with the benchmark index snapping its four-week losing streak, while the DJIA was down 0.3% and the Nasdaq rose 1.6%. An interesting stat heading into today’s trading as the S&P 500 has been up a record 13 days in a row on a Monday while the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) has a positive ‘first day of the week’ streak riding as well, with 14 in a row on the first trading day of the week (9/5 was a Tuesday due to Labor Day) for an average return of 0.61% (as per BTIG data last week). Note the NDX has gone 203 trading days without a -2.5% or worse daily decline (worst day this year was -2.41% in February), also as per BTIG data). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -80 points to 30,994, the Shanghai Index reopened after its week-long holiday -13 points to 3,96, and the Hang Seng Index gained 31 points to 17,517. In Europe, the German DAX is down -70 points to 15,157, while the FTSE 100 gains 20 points to 7,514. Markets are also preparing for the start of Q4 earnings season this week.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index climbed 50.31 points, or 1.18%, to 4,308.50.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 288.01 points, or 0.87%, to 33,407.58.

·     The Nasdaq Composite jumped 211.51 points, or 1.60%, to 13,431.34.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 14.05 points, or 0.81% to 1,745.56.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:00 AM ET                  Fed’s Barr Speaks at American Bankers Association Conference

·     9:00 AM ET                  Fed’s Logan Speaks on US Outlook, Monetary Policy

·     10:00 AM ET                Employment Trends for September

·     12:50 PM ET                Fed’s Jefferson Speaks at NABE Conference

World News

·     The Israeli government formally declared war Sunday against Hamas following the surprise attack against them this weekend, as the military tried to crush fighters still in southern towns and intensified its bombardment of the Gaza Strip. The toll passed 1,100 dead and thousands wounded on both sides.

·     Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Sunday he has ordered the Ford carrier strike group to sail to the eastern Mediterranean to be ready to assist Israel after the attack by Hamas that has left more than 1,000 dead on both sides.

·     Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group – WSJ https://tinyurl.com/4j7szpm4

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Tesla (TSLA) sold 74,073 China-made electric vehicles in September, a 10.9% decrease from a year earlier, showed data from the China Passenger Car Association on Sunday.

·     Tyson Foods (TSN) and other meat processors are closing plants across the country in response to what they say is slackening consumer demand and persistently high costs for livestock, feed and wages, the WSJ reported.

·     Shift Technologies Inc. (SFT), the online used car seller will file for bankruptcy and shut down its business, the company said Friday.

·     Around 4,000 United Auto Workers members at Mack Trucks will strike Monday after rejecting a tentative agreement in the latest dispute between the union and auto companies. Some 73% of UAW workers rejected the agreement, the union said in a post on X.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Oil stocks got a broad boost Monday, as the attack on Israel by Hamas sent crude oil prices surging. Shares of Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) and Devon Energy Corp. (DVN) all looking higher.

·     Defense stocks (GD, NOC, LMT, RTX, LHX) looking higher after Middle East conflict.

·     Gold Fields (GFI) has appointed Michael Fraser as CEO in January to drive the miner’s strategy to find new gold deposits outside of its home country and grow the company in the Americas region.

·     Lennox (LII) upgraded to Buy from Sell at Goldman Sachs and raised their tgt to $455 from $332.

·     Transports such as airlines (DAL, AAL, UAL) and truckers (JBHT CHRW) look weaker early given the sharp spike on oil prices overnight; cruise lines also weak early (CCL, RCL).

Healthcare

·     Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) agreed to buy Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) for $58 per share in a deal valued at up to $5.8B; MRTX stockholders will also receive one non-tradeable CVR for each share held, potentially worth $12.00 per share in cash https://tinyurl.com/mpszmpap

·     IDEAYA Biosciences (IDYA) announces development candidate nomination of a Werner helicase inhibitor in collaboration with GSK and Investor R&D Day.

·     Kaiser Permanente, one of the largest nonprofit U.S. healthcare providers, said its workers returned to the job Saturday without a contract agreement following a three-day strike; more than 75,000 union workers at Kaiser returned.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Datadog (DDOG) downgraded to Neutral at Bank America and cut tgt to $105 from $123 following cautious demand checks.

·     Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) plans to debut its first chip for artificial intelligence at its annual developers’ conference next month, which may reduce the software giant’s reliance on Nvidia (NVDA) chips, The Information reported late Friday.

·     Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management has become one of Disney’s (DIS) largest investors with a stake worth upward of $2.5 billion and is planning a fresh push for board seats – WSJ reports.