Early Look

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Futures	Up/Down	%	Last
Dow	77.00	0.23%	34,013
S&P 500	10.00	0.23%	4,401
Nasdaq	49.50	0.32%	15,320

 

 

U.S. futures are on the rise, extending recent gains amid another sharp decline in Treasury yields and ahead of key inflation data and Fed minutes. Upcoming inflation data is key for US stocks, currencies, and Treasury yields, with the September Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow. For the Sept PPI, headline estimates are for a rise of +0.3% M/M (vs. prior month +0.7%) and to rise +1.6% Y/Y (prior also 1.6%). On a core basis, or ex: food & energy, PPI expected to rise +0.2% (same as prior) and +2.3% Y/Y. Gold prices rose to a near two-week high around $1,886 an ounce as U.S. Treasury yields extended their retreat following dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials this week indicating that interest rates may have peaked. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 2-week low of 4.55%, down about 10-bps ahead of the PPI data and the Fed minutes later this afternoon. Asian equities climb for a fifth day amid China stimulus hopes and Samsung earnings relief. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 189 points to 31,936, the Shanghai Index rose 3 points to 3,078, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 228 points to 17,893. In Europe, the German DAX is up 15 points to 15,439, while the FTSE 100 rises 13 points to 7,641. Earnings season creeping up with big banks in 2 days.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index climbed 22.58 points, or 0.52%, to 4,358.24.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 134.65 points, or 0.40%, to 33,739.30.

·     The Nasdaq Composite jumped 78.61 points, or 0.58%, to 13,562.84.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 19.95 points, or 1.14% to 1,775.95.

 

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:00 AM ET                  MBA Mortgage Applications Data

·     8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline M/M for Sept…est. +0.3%

·     8:30 AM ET                  Producer Price Index (PPI) headline Y/Y for Sept…est. +1.6%

·     8:30 AM ET                  PPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) M/M for Sept… est. +0.2%

·     8:30 AM ET                  PPI Ex: Food & Energy (core) Y/Y for Sept…est. +2.3%

·     10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

·     12:15 PM ET                Fed’s Bostic Speaks to the Metro Atlanta Chamber

·     1:00 PM ET                   US Treasury to sell $35B in 10-year notes.

·     2:00 PM ET                   FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: None

·     Earnings After the Close: RELL

 

Other Key Events:

·     2023 AACR-NCI-EORTC (2023 Triple Meeting”) taking place 10/11-15 in Boston, MA

·     G2EGaming Conference in Las Vegas, 10/10-10/11

 

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
Nymex	-0.43	85.54
Brent	-0.25	77.40
Gold	11.20	1,886.50
EUR/USD	-0.0005	1.0598
JPY/USD	0.01	148.71
10-Year Note	-0.097	4.558%

 

 

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) priced its U.S. initial public offering (IPO) at the middle of its indicated price range at $46 per share, the company said on Tuesday. The IPO raised about $1.48B based on 32.3M shares sold and values the company at about $9.3B on a fully diluted basis.

·     Real Good Food (RGF) cuts Q4 revenue view to $65M-$72M from $70M-$77M (est. $74.48M) and said adjusted EBITDA for Q4 is expected to be $4M to $6M.

·     Stellantis NV (STLA) and Samsung SDI Co Ltd. plan to build a second U.S. battery manufacturing facility, the companies said Wednesday.

 

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Exxon Mobil (XOM) has agreed to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) for $253 per share in a deal valued at $59.5B; Pioneer shareholders will receive 2.3234 shares of ExxonMobil for each Pioneer share at closing. (the news confirms recent media reports). https://tinyurl.com/6ht2ywaw

·     AZZ (AZZ) reports Q2 adj EPS $1.27 vs. est. $1.08; Q2 revs $398.5M vs. est. $396.91M; sees FY24 adjusted EPS $3.85-$4.35 vs. est. $3.94; sees FY24 revenue $1.40B-$1.55B vs. est. $1.51B.

·     Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) announces offering of 6.5M shares of common stock.

·     Simpson Manufacturing Co. (SSD) said Wednesday it was the subject of a cybersecurity incident on Tuesday that disrupted its IT infrastructure and applications.

 

Financials

·     AllianceBernstein L.P. (AB) preliminary assets under management decreased to $669 billion during September 2023 from $694 billion at the end of August. The 4% AUM decrease was primarily due to market depreciation, alongside net outflows.

·     Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt (APAM) preliminary assets under management as of September 30, 2023, totaling $136.5 billion. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $66.6 billion of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $69.9 billion.

·     Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN) preliminary month-end assets under management (aum) of $1.37 trillion at September 30, 2023, compared to $1.42 trillion at August 31, 2023.

·     Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) preliminary month-end assets under management of $1,487.3 billion, a decrease of 2.6% versus the previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $1.6 billion in the month.

·     Victory Capital (VCTR) reported assets under management of $153.5B as of September 30, 2023, and average assets under management for September of $158.1B.

·     Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. (VRTS) preliminary assets under management of $162.5 billion as of September 30, 2023. The decrease from June 30, 2023, primarily reflects market depreciation and net outflows in open-end funds and institutional accounts.

 

Healthcare

·     Novo Nordisk (NVO) announced the decision to stop the kidney outcomes trial FLOW (Effect of semaglutide versus placebo on the progression of renal impairment in people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease) based on a recommendation from the independent Data Monitoring Committee concluding that the results from an interim analysis met certain pre-specified criteria for stopping the trial early for efficacy.

·     Dialysis companies DaVita (DVA) and Fresenius (FMS) shares are trading lower after NVO weight loss drug Ozempic showed early success in a trial to treat kidney failure in diabetes patients; NVO said it will stop its kidney outcomes trial almost a year ahead of schedule, based on a recommendation from the independent data monitoring board overseeing the study.

·     Silk Road Medical (SILK) shares tumbled 30% after hours after lowering its FY rev outlook to $170M-$174M from prior $180M-$184M view (est. $181.7M) after lower Q3 guide and announced Chief Executive Erica Rogers would retire after a successor is appointed.

 

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) said it sees Q3 operating profit to fall 78% y/y at 2.4 trillion won ($1.79 billion), compared with the profit of KRW10.85 trillion for the same period in 2022; said its revenue likely fell 13% from the same period a year earlier to 67 trillion won.

·     HP Inc. (HPQ) guided FY24 adjusted EPS $3.25-$3.65 vs. est. $3.47, said anticipates generating free cash flow of $3.1B-$3.6B for FY24 and indicated that it expects to return approximately 100% of free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases; raises annual dividend.

·     E2open Parent Holdings (ETWO) cut its FY24 revenue view to $625M-$635M from $655M-$670M (below consensus $658.74M); backed FY24 adjusted gross profit margin view 68%-70%.

·     TD SYNNEX (SNX) announces offering of 6.75M shares of common stock for holders.