Early Look

Monday, October 16, 2023

U.S. futures are looking mixed with the Dow up over 100 points but the Nasdaq slightly lower as Treasury yields edge higher (10-yr 4.68% up 6 bps from Friday) amid diplomatic efforts to contain the Israel-Hamas conflict. Gold prices decline -0.65% at $1,929 an ounce, giving back some of last week’s gains (rose 5.2% last week). Stocks finished mixed last week as well as the S&P 500 index rose 0.45%, the Dow added 0.79%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.18%. On Friday, technology stocks and shares of companies that depend on discretionary spending, including casinos, cruise lines and dating apps, were the biggest decliners while the Dow Jones Industrial Average, buoyed by gains in UnitedHealth Group, Chevron and JPMorgan Chase after better earnings, finished higher. In Asian markets overnight, The Nikkei Index tumbled -656 points to 31,659, the Shanghai Index dropped -14 points to 3,073, the Hang Seng Index declined -173 points to 17,640. In Europe, the German DAX is down -10 points to 15,175, while the FTSE 100 is up 30 points to 7,630. Earnings season kicks into full gear this week with big earnings on deck in technology and financials while investors continue to closely watch the situation in the Middle East and economic data for signs of additional rate hikes by the Fed in November.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -21.83 points, or 0.50%, to 4,327.78.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39.15 points, or 0.12%, to 33,670.29.

·     The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -166.99 points, or 1.23%, to 13,407.23.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -14.54 points, or 0.84% to 1,719.71.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET                  Empire Manufacturing for October…est. (-7.0)

·     10:30 AM ET                Fed’s Harker Speaks on the Economic Outlook

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: GNTY SCHW

·     Earnings After the Close: CFB ELS FBK SFBS

World News

·     Iran sent a message to Israel on Saturday stressing that it does not want further escalation in the Hamas-Israel war, but that it will have to intervene if the Israeli operation in Gaza continues, Axios reported. Meanwhile, Western diplomats and leaders warned Iran not to wade into the Israel-Hamas war, as Israeli forces appeared on the verge of a ground invasion of Gaza.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Lululemon (LULU) will replace Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) in the S&P 500 after Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) acquired Activision Blizzard in a transaction completed today, October 13.

·     Qatar’s Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani is withdrawing his offer to buy soccer club Manchester United (MANU), a person with knowledge of the process told The Associated Press on Saturday. https://tinyurl.com/2zkc4j89

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Albemarle (ALB) scrapped its proposed $4.16B takeover of Liontown Resources, citing the difficulty of completing the deal following the intervention of Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting after having taken a 19.9% equity stake in Liontown.

·     PCTEL (PCTI) reached an agreement to be acquired by Amphenol Corp. (APH) in an all-cash transaction that values the company at about $139.7 million, with holders to receive $7 per share in cash. https://tinyurl.com/mr2u47fz

·     Tencent (TCEHY) backed J&T Global Express is the latest logistics-related company seeking to tap investors’ appetite in Hong Kong with a 3.92 billion Hong Kong dollar ($500.80 million) share offering.

·     S&P MidCap 400 constituent Hubbell Inc. (HUBB) will replace Organon & Co. (OGN) in the S&P 500, S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) will replace Hubbell in the S&P MidCap 400, and Organon & Co will replace Onto Innovation in the S&P SmallCap 600.

·     Maxeon Solar (MAXN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America and cut its price tgt to $12, down from $31.

·     Teck Resources (TECK) said steelmaking coal sales were 5.2 million tonnes, below our guidance of 5.6 – 6.0 million tonnes due to slower than anticipated supply chain recovery following the impacts of B.C. wildfires and the Labor disruption at B.C. ports, and plant challenges.

Financials

·     Bank of America (BAC) reported charge-offs for September of 2.09% vs. 2.1% in August and Delinquencies reported at 1.3% vs. 1.26% last month.

·     JPMorgan (JPM) reported charge-offs for September of 1.6% vs. 1.68% in August and Delinquencies 0.95% vs. 0.9% last month.

·     Barron’s noted an insurance bounce back is expected as rising premiums allow companies to rebuild earnings, surpluses, and capital. Barron’s picked the six best buys for reviving insurer stocks: Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL), Chubb Ltd. (CB), Everest Group Ltd. (EG), W R Berkley Corp. (WRB), MetLife Inc. (MET) and Arthur J. Gallagher and Co. (AJG).

Healthcare

·     Pfizer (PFE) late Friday slashed its FY23 revenue guidance to $58B-$61B from prior $67B-$70B, below estimates $66B and lowers FY adj EPS $1.45-$1.65, from prior $3.25-$3.45 solely due to Covid products; shares of German partner BioNTech (BNTX) and other Covid vaccine makers such as Moderna (MRNA) and Novavax (NVAX) dropped in sympathy.

·     CVS Health (CVS) announced several leadership updates, effective immediately: Executive Vice President, CFO and President of Health Services Shawn Guertin will be taking a leave of absence from his role due to unforeseen family health reasons. Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Tom Cowhey, has been appointed interim CFO.

·     Elevance Health (ELV) said the percentage of Medicare Advantage members of affiliated health plans in 4 Star or higher-rated plans is expected to drop to ~34% vs ~64% based on the 2023 result.

·     Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) filed for bankruptcy Sunday, as it faces billions of dollars of debt related to opioid lawsuits.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Apple (AAPL) shares slip pre mkt after Bloomberg reported a study from market tracker Counterpoint Research estimated sales of the company’s new iPhone 15 are down 4.5% compared with the iPhone 14 over their first 17 days after release. https://tinyurl.com/25eswmd6

·     Crown Castle (CCI) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital.