Morning Preview: October 24, 2024

Early Look
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Futures |
Up/Down |
% |
Last |
Dow |
-42.00 |
0.10% |
42,696 |
S&P 500 |
27.25 |
0.47% |
5,865 |
Nasdaq |
168.50 |
0.83% |
20,388 |
U.S. futures are rebounding after the S&P closed lower on Wednesday by nearly -1%, its largest one-day dip in two weeks, helped overnight from a handful of corporate earnings. Treasury yields finally ease, as the 10-yr dips 5-bps to 4.19% after a monster 50+ basis point run since the September Fed meeting and the dollar (DXY) also pulled back about -0.25% easing some pressure for interest rate sensitive stocks. In some top earnings movers, UPS shares jumped this morning after a top and bottom line beat and as Q3 average daily volume increased 6.5% in the transport sector, TSLA shares surge over 11% helping boost the Nasdaq on earnings results and saying could see 20% to 30% “vehicle growth” in 2025; IBM shares fall -5% despite quarterly beat as rev guidance disappoints; other tech earnings winners included LRCX, TMUS, CLS among others. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 38 points to 38,143, the Shanghai Index fell -22 points to 3,280, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -270 points to 20,489. In Europe, the German DAX is up 120 points to 19,497, while the FTSE 100 gains about 50 points to 8,307. Heading into another heavy day of earnings, which doesn’t let up for the next three weeks.
Market Closing Prices Yesterday
- The S&P 500 Index dropped -53.78 points, or 0.92%, to 5,797.42.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -409.94 points, or 0.96%, to 42,514.95.
- The Nasdaq Composite stumbled -296.48 points, or 1.60%, to 18,276.65.
- The Russell 2000 Index declined -17.70 points, or 0.79% to 2,213.83.
Economic Calendar for Today
- 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 242K
- 8:30 AM ET Continuing Claims…est. 1.875M
- 8:30 AM ET National Activity Index for September
- 8:45 AM ET Fed’s Hammack Gives Welcome Remarks
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Oct-Flash…est. 47.5
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Services PMI, Oct-Flash…est. 55.0
- 9:45 AM ET S&P Global Composite, Oct-Flash
- 10:00 AM ET New Home Sales M/M for September…est. 720K
- 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 11:00 AM ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for October
Earnings Calendar:
- Earnings Before the Open: AAL AB AIT AMAL BC BFH BHLB CARR CBRE CNX COLB CRS DOV DOW DTE EEFT FCFS FCN FCNCA HAS HOG HON IBCP ITGR KDP LEA LH LKQ LNN LTH LUV MPX MSM NDAQ NOC NTNT ORI POOL PPBI R RDUS RES RS SAH SBSI SMPL SPGI TPH TSCO TXT UNP UPS VC VIRT VLO VLY WEX WNC WST XPRO
- Earnings After the Close: ABCB AJG ALEX APPF ASB ATR BY BYD BYON CINF COF COUR CSL CTO CUZ DECK DLR DOC DXCM EBC EW EXPO FFBC FFIC FIBK FISI GBCI GLPI GSIT HIG KN KNSL LHX MHK MOFG MSBI MTX NOV OLN ORC PDM PECO PFG PTEN RMD ROG SBCF SKX SPSC SSNC TBBL TROX TXRH UHS ULH UVE VRSN WDC WSFS WY
Macro |
Up/Down |
Last |
Nymex |
1.40 |
72.17 |
Brent |
1.42 |
76.38 |
Gold |
21.00 |
2,750.40 |
EUR/USD |
0.0019 |
1.0802 |
JPY/USD |
-0.84 |
151.90 |
10-Year Note |
-0.05 |
4.192% |
World News
- The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 7.8 vs 20.1 last week. Bulls fall to 37.7% from 45.5%, Neutrals rise to 32.4% from 29.2%, Bears rise to 29.9% from 25.4%
Sector News Breakdown
Consumer
- Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q3 adj EPS $0.72 vs. est. $0.60 and revs $25.18B vs. est. $25.43B; Q3 gross margin 19.8% tops estimates 16.8% and vs 18% in Q2; said expects slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024; says remains on track to launch affordable models in first half 2025; CEO Musk said that Tesla could see 20% to 30% “vehicle growth” in 2025, which would mark a significant improvement from this year, in which global deliveries are down nearly 6% for the first three quarters of 2024.
- Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q3 adj EPS $0.97 vs. consensus $1.06 on revs $628.5M vs. est. $627.92M; said it delivered record third quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA across both Live and Historical Racing and Gaming segments and record third quarter Adjusted EBITDA in its TwinSpires segment.
- Hasbro (HAS) Q3 adj EPS $1.73 vs. consensus $1.28; Q3 revenue $1.28B vs. consensus $1.3B; guides Consumer Products segment revenue -12% to -14%, saw -7% to -11% and still sees ADJ EBITDA $975M to $1.03B, EST $1.03B.
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Q3 adj property EBITDA $991Mm vs est. $1.025B on revs $2.68B vs est. $2.781B, says low hold on rolling play in Macao negatively impacted adj property EBITDA by $2Mm.
- Mattel Inc. (MAT) Q3 adj EPS $1.14 tops consensus $0.95; Q3 revs fell -4% y/y to $1.844B vs. consensus $1.86B; Barbie posted a 17% drop in gross billings in Q3 which was offset by a 12% increase for Hot Wheels, while Fisher Price was flat; backed year EPS outlook but now expects net sales, excluding currency effects, to be flat to slightly down for the year vs. its prior forecast that sales would be in line with last year’s $5.44 billion.
- O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Q3 EPS $11.41 vs est. $11.55, comps +1.5%, revs $4.36B vs est. $4.425B; guides FY revs $16.6-16.8B vs est. $16.756B, comps +2.0-3.0% and EPS $40.60-41.10 vs est. $41.14.
- Whirlpool (WHR) Q3 adj EPS $3.43 vs. est. $3.19; Q3 revenue $3.99B vs. est. $4.09B; backs FY24 adjusted EPS view ~$12.00 vs. consensus $11.62 and sees FY24 revenue ~$16.9B vs. consensus $16.78B; sees FY free cash flow about $500M; Sequential margin expansion in MDA North America for the second consecutive quarter, driven by promotional pricing action; Q3 GAAP net earnings margin of 2.7% (vs. Q2 5.5%).
Energy, Industrials and Materials
- Boeing (BA) shares down after its largest union rejected a new labor contract, extending a six-week strike that has crippled production. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Union, representing about 33,000 Boeing employees in the Pacific Northwest, said that 64% of voting members checked “no” to the new labor deal. A tentative deal, agreed to over the weekend, would raise base wages by 35% over four years.
- CACI Int’l (CACI) Q1 adj EPS $5.93 vs est. $5.07 on revs $2.057B vs est. $1.921B; guides FY revs $8.1-8.3B vs est. $8.066B and adj EPS $22.89-23.78 vs est. $23.13.
- Graco (GGG) Q3 adj EPS $0.71 vs. est. $0.76; Q3 revs $519.2M vs. consensus $538.68M; reaffirming our full-year revenue guidance, which anticipates a low single-digit decline on an organic, constant currency basis.
- Newmont Mining (NEM) Q3 adj EPS $0.81 vs est. $0.86, adj EBITDA $1.967B vs est. $2.247B on revs $4.605B vs est. $4.673B.
- Rollins Inc. (ROL) Q3 adj EPS $0.29 vs est. $0.30, adj EBITDA $219Mm vs est. $228.4Mm on revs $916Mm vs est. $911.2Mm.
- Seadrill (SDRL) rises after Bloomberg reported Transocean (RIG) was in talks to merge with its rival offshore drilling contractor. Discussions are ongoing about the potential structure of a combination, Bloomberg reported.
- United Rentals (URI) Q3 adj EPS $11.80 vs est. $12.48, adj EBITDA $1.904B vs est. $1.933B on revs $3.992B vs est. $4.007B; sees FY revs $15.1-15.3B vs est. $15.188B, reaffirms mid-points of guidance across all metrics.
- UPS (UPS) Q3 adj EPS $1.76 vs. consensus $1.63; Q3 revs $22.2B vs. est. $22.14B; Q3 average daily volume increased 6.5%; cuts FY24 revenue view to ~$91.1B from ~$93B, vs. consensus $91.85B after the company completed the disposition of Coyote Logistics.
- Waste Connections (WCN) Q3 adj EPS $1.35 vs. est. $1.29; Q3 revs $2.34B vs. consensus $2.3B; raises quarterly dividend 10.5% to 31.5c per share; raises FY24 revenue view to ~$8.9B from $8.85B (est. $8.86B) and sees net income about $1.082 billion, and adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be approximately $2.910 billion, up $50 million.
Financials
- Ameriprise (AMP) Q3 adjusted EPS $9.02 vs. est. $8.92; Q3 revs $4.4B vs. est. $4.31B; Adjusted operating expenses increased 14% to $1.9B compared to a year ago; Adjusted operating net revenues increased 14% to $2.7B from growth in client assets, increased transactional activity and 6% growth in net investment income at the bank.
- Lending Club (LC) Q3 EPS $0.13 vs est. $0.07 on revs $201.9Mm vs est. $190.5Mm; sees Q4 new originations $1.9-1.9B vs est. $1.91B.
- Western Union (WU) Q3 adj EPS $0.46 vs. est. $0.44; Q3 revs $1.036B vs. consensus $1.03B; sees FY24 adjusted EPS $1.70-$1.80 vs. consensus $1.76 and sees FY24 revenue $4.15B-$4.225B vs. est. $4.18B; Q3 Consumer Services revenue grew 32% on a reported basis and 15% on an adjusted basis.
Healthcare
- Align Technologies (ALGN) Q3 adj EPS $2.35 vs est. $2.31 on revs $977.9Mm vs est. $987.3Mm, adj op mgn 22.1%; guides Q4 revs $995Mm-$1.01B vs est. $1.011B.
- ICON PLC (ICLR) Q3 adj EPS $3.35 missed consensus $3.84 on lighter revs $2.03B (est. $2.13B); guided FY24 EPS $13.90-$14.10 below consensus $15.06 on revs $8.26B-$8.3B (est. $8.51B); said Q3 revenue shortfall was attributable to more material headwinds from two large customers undergoing budget cuts and changes in their development model, lower than anticipated vaccine-related activity, and ongoing cautiousness from biotech customers.
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) Q3 adj EPS $6.01 vs est. $5.81 on revs $10.34B vs est. $9.911B, says reaffirms FY earnings guidance, sees FY premium revs approx $38B and adj EPS at least $23.50 vs est. $23.24.
- Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.22) vs. est. loss (-$0.25); Q3 operating expenses $36.556M; Q3 net income (-$24.94m).
- In Managed Care (CI, UNH, ELV, HUM): Private Medicare insurers received approximately $4.2B in extra federal payments in 2023 for diagnoses made during home visits the company initiated, even though they led to no treatment. The extra payments were triggered by the diagnoses documented based on the visits, including potentially inaccurate ones, for which patients received no extra medical care – WSJ
Technology, Media & Telecom
- IBM Corp. (IBM) Q3 adj EPS $2.30 vs est. $2.23 on revs $14.97B vs est. $15.07B, says generative AI book of business stands at over $3B at qtr end; sees Q4 constant currency revs growth consistent with Q3 (+2% vs est. +3.06% reported revs, says currency headwind expected to be about a half point to growth); sees FY more than $12B FCF.
- Ingram Micro (INGM) 18.6M share IPO priced at $22.00.
- Impinj (PI) Q3 adj EPS $0.56 vs est. $0.48, adj EBITDA $17.3Mm vs est. $15.62Mm on revs $95.198Mm vs est. $92.88Mm; sees Q4 revs $91.0-94.0Mm vs est. $90.09Mm and adj EPS $0.45-0.49 vs est. $0.40.
- Lam Research (LRCX) Q3 EPS $0.86 vs. est. $0.80 and revs $4.17B vs. consensus $4.05B; sees Q4 EPS $0.77-$0.97 vs. est. $0.84 and revs $4.0B-$4.6B vs. consensus $4.24B; Q3 adj gross margin 48.2% vs. 47.9% y/y, and adj operating margin 30.9% vs. 30.1% y/y.
- MaxLinear (MXL) Q3 adj EPS ($0.36) vs est. ($0.32) on revs $81.102Mm vs est. $79.87Mm; sees Q4 adj gr mgn 57.5-60.5%, adj op exp $58-64Mm, adj interest and other exp approx $1.0-2.5Mm each.
- ServiceNow (NOW) Q3 adj EPS $3.72 vs. consensus $3.46; Q3 revs $2.797B vs. est. $2.74B; raised full year topline guidance on the strength of our Q3 results, once again going beyond expectations; sees 4q subscription revenue $2.87B-$2.88B and sees FY24 subscription revenue $10.655B-$10.66B. ServiceNow says partners with NVIDIA (NVDA) to accelerate enterprise adoption of Agentic AI.
- Teradyne (TER) Q3 EPS $0.09 vs. est. $0.78; Q3 revenue $737M vs. consensus $716.4M; sees Q4 EPS $0.08-$0.97 vs. est. $0.88 and sees Q4 revenue $710M-$760M vs. consensus $736.5M.
- T-Mobile (TMUS) Q3 EPS $2.61 vs est. $2.42, adj EBITDA $8.243B vs est. $8.125B on revs $20.162B vs est. $20.008B; guides FY core adj EBITDA $31.6-31.8B vs prior $31.5-31.8B and est. $31.655B.
- Celestica (CLS) Q3 adj ES $1.04 vs. est. $0.94; Q3 revs rose 22% y/y to $2.5B vs. est. $2.41B; forecasts Q4 EPS $0.99-$1.09 vs. est. $0.95; Q4 revs $2.43B-$2.58B vs. est. $2.45B; raises FY guidance for EPS and revs.
- Pegasystems (PEGA) Q3 adj EPS $0.39 vs et $0.36 on revs $325.05Mm vs est. $325.07Mm.
Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.