Early Look

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

U.S. futures with a modest bounce overnight ahead of todays FOMC policy meeting results at 2:00pm and Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference following at 2:30pm. No changes to rates are widely expected but markets are eagerly awaiting Powel’s comments discussing the economic outlook and rate trajectory. Treasury yields edge lower after hitting cycle highs yesterday as the 10-year topped 4.36% (hit 4.37% overnight before slipping). Overseas, the pound fell, and investors saw a nearly 50-50 chance of rates staying on hold at the BoE’s September meeting after the consumer price index sank to an 18-month low of 6.7% in August. In corporate news, the third high profile IPO in the last week will trade today after Klaviyo (KVYO) 19.2M share IPO priced at $30, above its expected range of $27-$29 (follows ARM and CART IPOs in recent days). Also earnings in the transport sector tonight with Fed-Ex (FDX) and KB Homes (KBH) in the homebuilder sector. In addition to the interest rate fears, a partial government shutdown could be in the works ahead of the October 1^st deadline to fund spending. The politically sensitive deadline is Oct. 13^th when paychecks are due to the uniformed military. The current spending issues involve defense ITA spending, as well as spending on Ukraine and security at the southern U.S. border. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index dropped -218 points to 33,023, the Shanghai Index fell -16 points to 3,108, and the Hang Seng Index declined -111 points to 17,885. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by 80 points to 15,747, while the FTSE 100 rises 57 points to 7,718.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dipped -9.49 points, or 0.21%, to 4,444.04.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -106.04 points, or 0.31%, to 34,518.26.

·     The Nasdaq Composite slipped -32.05 points, or 0.23%, to 13,678.19.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -7.77 points, or 0.42% to 1,826.53.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     7:00 AM ET                  MBA Mortgage Applications Data

·     10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data

·     2:00 PM ET                   FOMC Rate Policy Decision – est. to keep rates steady at 5.25%-5.5%

·     2:30 PM ET                   Fed Chairman Powell holds Press Conference post policy meeting.

Earnings Calendar:

·     Earnings Before the Open: GIS

·     Earnings After the Close: FDX KBH

Other Key Events:

·     DA Davidson Annual Diversified Industrials & Services Conference, 9/20-9/22, in Nashville, TN

·     Oracle Cloud World 2023, 9/18-9/21

·     Sidoti September Small-Cap Conference (virtual), 9/20-9/21

·     Truist West Coast Bus Tour (In Person – San Francisco), 9/19-9/21

World News

·     The UK Consumer Prices Index rose 6.7% from a year ago in August, less than the 6.8% gain the month before, the Office for National Statistics said (Britain’s inflation rate has fallen from a peak above 11% last October). Core inflation fell sharply to 6.2% from 6.9% in July and Service sector inflation lost some of its steam too, slowing to 6.8% from 7.4%.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Ford (F) reached a last-minute deal to avoid a walkout at its Canadian operations late on Tuesday, as the United Auto Workers union prepared for a potential expansion of its U.S. strikes against the Detroit Three automakers. Unifor, which represents about 5,600 Canadian auto workers, were threatening to go on strike at all three of Ford’s plants if a deal wasn’t reached.

·     Coty Inc. (COTY) guides 2024 adjusted EBITDA $1.08B-$1.09B above prior $1.07B-$1.08B view; now expecting core LFL sales growth in first half FY24 of +10-12%, an increase from its earlier outlook of +8-10%; raised FY24 core LFL sales growth outlook of +8-10%, up from its earlier guidance to be at the top end of its medium-term target range of +6-8%.

·     Steelcase (SCS) Q2 revs $854.6Mm vs est. $828.83Mm and adj EPS $0.31 vs est. $0.20; guides Q3 revs $780-805Mm vs est. $820.68Mm and adj EPS $0.23-0.27 vs est. $0.19.

·     WingStop (WING) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     The America Petroleum Institute said weekly Crude inventories fell -5.25m barrels, gasoline stockpiles rose +732k barrels and Distillates fell -258k barrels.

·     Permian Resources (PR) 21.45M share Spot Secondary priced at $13.05.

·     Textron Aviation (TXT) and NetJets announced a fleet agreement for the option for NetJets to purchase up to 1,500 additional Cessna Citation business jets over the next 15 years.

Financials

·     JPMorgan (JPM) raises the quarterly dividend to $1.05 from $1.00 per share.

·     Eastern Bankshares (EBC) is merging with Cambridge Bancorp (CATC) in an all-stock transaction valued at $528 million and selling its insurance operations to Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) for $510 million in cash. The bank holding said the merger would create a $27 billion combined franchise.

Healthcare

·     ARS Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SPRY) shares tumbled after saying the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter regarding the New Drug Application for its epinephrine nasal spray Neffy. In the CRL, the FDA requested completion of a study assessing repeat doses of Neffy.

·     Alvotech (ALVO) said the FDA has accepted its resubmitted Biologics License Application (BLA) for AVT02, a high-concentration, interchangeable biosimilar candidate to Humira (adalimumab).

·     Taysha Gene Therapies (TSHA) said it will discontinue development of its TSHA-120 program to treat giant axonal neuropathy after receiving feedback from the U.S. FDA. The company said it will pursue external strategic options for TSHA-120.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Klaviyo (KVYO) 19.2M share IPO priced at $30, above its expected range of $27-$29.

·     Pinterest (PINS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup and raised price tgt to $36.

·     MSG Entertainment (MSGE) 7.15M share Secondary priced at $32.50.

·     Skillsoft (SKIL) announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 1-for-20 reverse stock split of the Company’s common stock.

·     China accused the US of infiltrating Huawei Technologies Co. servers beginning in 2009, part of a broad-based effort to steal data that culminated in tens of thousands of cyber-attacks against Chinese targets last year – Bloomberg.