Early Look

Friday, September 22, 2023

U.S. futures are looking at a modest bounce to start the day after closing at the lows the last two days in a brutal sell-off following central bank action this week. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped -1.8% on Thursday and is down -3.3% the last 2 days (its worst consecutive 2-day stretch this year) as surging Treasury yields on higher interest rate fears takes its toll on growth stocks. The QQQ’s hit the lowest levels since June 26^th and the S&P (SPY) hit lowest levels since June 9^th in what was another broad-based stock market pullback Thursday. Yesterday was the highest percentage of net new 52-week lows for the S&P since March 24th today, as per Bespoke Invest. News flow is very light today and outside of a few manufacturing reports, not much else on the calendar. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -168 points to 32,402, the Shanghai Index jumped 47 points or 1.55% to settle at 3,132, and the Hang Seng Index gained 402 points or 2.28% to settle at 18.057. In Europe, the German DAX is down -26 points to 15,545, while the FTSE 100 rises 47 points to 7,725. The yen added to its post-BOJ fall as Governor Ueda tempered expectations they were close to raising interest rates – USD/JPY rises 0.4% to trade near 148.20. Sterling slipped 0.4% after UK retail sales and composite PMI both fell short of estimates. Regarding the government shutdown deadline (end of month), Speaker Kevin McCarthy brought up a vote to advance a bill to fund the Defense Department on Thursday. For the second time this week, it failed. Now, they’ve canceled votes for Friday and the weekend, telling members they’ll get “ample notice” if any votes are scheduled. @KobeissiLetter tweeted last night: the S&P 500 has now erased $2.5 trillion in value since the Fed said they no longer expect a recession. On July 26th, the Fed said they were removing a recession from their forecast. Since then, the S&P 500 is down nearly 300 points and inflation has risen for 2 straight months.

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index dropped -72.24 points, or 1.64%, to 4,329.96.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -370.40 points, or 1.08%, to 34,070.48.

·     The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -245.14 points, or 1.82%, to 13,223.99.

·     The Russell 2000 Index declined -28.28 points, or 1.56% to 1,781.82.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Sept-Flash

·     9:45 AM ET                  S&P Global Services PMI, Sept-Flash

·     1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

World News

·     Chinese equity markets outperformed peers, helped by CCTV reports that the NDRC had unveiled another package of measures to support the private economy.

·     Japan’s central bank holds rates steady and maintains its forward guidance. Said forward guidance remains they “will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary”.

·     Japan’s CPI stayed firm in August, shrugging off the lower-than-expected Tokyo CPI a few weeks ago. Headline CPI came in at 3.2% (est. 3.0%, prev. 3.3%), while core came in at 3.1% (est. 3.0%, prev. 3.1%).

·     Euro zone Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 47.1 in September from August’s 33-month low of 46.7.

·     UK GfK consumer sentiment indicator rose for a second month in a row to -21 in September, the highest since January last year, from -25 in August and consensus for a fall to -27

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     General Motors Co. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) and Stellantis NV (STLA) are bracing for more walkouts on Friday as the carmakers remain far apart from the United Auto Workers on key issues, including job security and pay parity for temporary workers. UAW President Shawn Fain vowed to expand the strike to more plants if there wasn’t substantial headway made after the first week. He’ll announce the union’s next steps at 10 a.m. local time.

·     Shoe Carnival (SCVL) boosts qtrly cash div to $0.12.

·     Wayfair (W) upgraded to market perform from underperform and tgt raised to $65 at Bernstein citing improving revenue growth and margin commentary.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Canada’s biggest steelmaker Stelco Holdings (STLC.TO) is pursuing a bid for U.S. Steel Corp (X), adding to a growing list of suitors for steel producer, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. https://tinyurl.com/msrw5w7k

·     Deere (DE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord and lowered its price tgt to $400 from $530 as industry data shows slowing unit growth for ag equipment.

Healthcare

·     AstraZeneca (AZN) said trial results for its breast cancer drug Dato-DXd showed significant improvement for the primary endpoint of so-called progression-free survival in patients.

·     Merck (MRK) and Eisai (ESAIY) provided updates on two Phase 3 trials, LEAP-006 and LEAP-008, evaluating KEYTRUDA, Merck’s anti-PD-1 therapy, plus LENVIMA, the orally available multiple receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor discovered by Eisai, in patients with certain types of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer.

·     Seagen Inc. (SGEN) and Astellas Pharma Inc. announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 EV-302 clinical trial (also known as KEYNOTE-A39) for PADCEV® (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv) in combination with KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) versus chemotherapy in patients with previously untreated locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer, a form of bladder cancer.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     Activision Blizzard (ATVI) moves closer to being acquired by Microsoft’s (MSFT) after the U.K. competition regulator said the sale of cloud gaming rights to Ubisoft (UBSFY) “substantially addresses” its previous concerns. “The sale of Activision’s cloud streaming rights to Ubisoft will prevent this important content including games such as Call of Duty, Overwatch, and World of Warcraft – from coming under the control of Microsoft in relation to cloud gaming.”

·     Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 15 goes on sale on Friday.

·     Amazon (AMZN) Prime Video content to include limited ads in early 2024. Ads in Prime Video content will be introduced in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Canada in early 2024, followed by France, Italy, Spain, Mexico, and Australia later in the year.

·     3D Systems (DDD) CFO Michael Turner to step down.