Early Look

Thursday, September 28, 2023

U.S. futures are looking higher ahead of a key round of inflation economic data later this morning, boosted by a bounce in Dow component Nike (NKE) shares, up over 7% after posting a steep drop in inventories and as Eurozone inflation data showed an annual rate of 4.3% this month, a drop from 5.2% in August. Stocks are looking to close out the final day of the trading month and quarter on an upbeat note, also helped by a drop in Treasury yields as the 10-year slips to 4.55%, now down about 14 bps off this week’s highs and as the dollar (DXY) slips -0.5% to 105.70, off 10-month highs. Fed’s Barkin said holding steady at Sept FOMC was appropriate; we have time to see data before deciding what’s next for rates, the forward path depends on inflation; will be watching jobs market closely for clues. Heading into today, the S&P 500 is down -4.6% in September, the Nasdaq -5.9% and the Dow down -3%. The US government is fast approaching yet another shutdown unless Congress enacts a temporary spending bill before the new fiscal year starts on Oct. 1. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -14 points to 31,857, the Shanghai Index rose 3 points to 3,110, and the Hang Seng Index jumped 436 points to 17,809. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by 158 points to 15,482, while the FTSE 100 is up 70 points to 7,672.

Economic Calendar for Today

·     8:30 AM ET                  Personal Income M/M for August…est. +0.4%

·     8:30 AM ET                  Personal Spending M/M for August…est. +0.5%

·     8:30 AM ET                  PCE Price Index M/M for August…est. +0.5% (prior +0.2%)

·     8:30 AM ET                  PCE Price Index Y/Y for August…est. +3.5% (prior +3.3%)

·     8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index M/M for August…est. +0.2% (prior +0.2%)

·     8:30 AM ET                  Core PCE Price Index Y/Y for August…est. +3.9% (prior +4.2%)

·     8:30 AM ET                  Advanced Goods Trade Balance for August

·     9:45 AM ET                  Chicago PMI for September…est. 47.6

·     10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan Confidence, Sept-Final…est. 67.7

·     10:00 AM ET                University of Michigan 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations, Sept-F

·     12:45 PM ET                Fed’s Williams to Speak on Monetary Policy

·     1:00 PM ET                   Baker Hughes Weekly rig count data

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

·     The S&P 500 Index climbed 25.19 points, or 0.59%, to 4,299.70.

·     The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 116.07 points, or 0.35%, to 33,666.34.

·     The Nasdaq Composite gained 108.43 points, or 0.83%, to 13,201.28.

·     The Russell 2000 Index advanced 15.41 points, or 0.87% to 1,794.31.

World News

·     Eurozone annual inflation rate was 4.3% this month, a drop from 5.2% in August. But recently higher oil prices are casting a shadow over prospects for beating inflation back down to the central bank’s target of 2%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food prices, fell more than analysts expected — to 4.5% from 5.3%, according to data released Friday.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

·     Nike Inc. (NKE) Q1 EPS $0.94 vs. est. $0.70; Q1 revs rose 2% y/y to $12.9B vs. est. 12.98B; Q1 inventories -10% y/y to $8.7B; said Q1 North America revs -1.6% y/y to $5.42B, Q1 China revs +4.8% y/y to $1.74B, EMEA revs +8.3% y/y to $3.61B; Q1 gross margin decreased 10 basis points to 44.2%

·     Blue Apron Holdings (APRN) shares more than double after the WSJ reported the meal-kit company reportedly agreed to be acquired by food-delivery startup Wonder Group for $13 per share in a deal valued at $103M https://tinyurl.com/2p8ku634

·     Vail Resorts (MTN) Q4 EPS loss (-$3.35) vs. est. loss (-$3.27); Q4 revs $269.8M vs. est. $282.7M; Q4 Ebitda $834.8M vs. $836.9M y/y; Q4 effective Ticket Price $67.71 and total skier visits 867,000 vs. est. 1.06M; guided 2024 total reported EBITDA $910.0M-$972.0M vs. est. $950.5M.

·     Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) said that severe storms at its dealerships located in Round Rock, Texas, disrupted operations and caused significant hail damage to over 750 new, used and customer service loaner vehicles, which represent over $27M in inventory value. Most of the damaged vehicles are not repairable and are anticipated to be total losses.

·     WK Kellogg Co. (KLG) will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600 replacing American Vanguard Corp. (AVD) effective prior to the open of trading on Tuesday, October 3. S&P 500 constituent Kellogg Co. (K) is spinning off WK Kellogg.

·     J.M. Smucker (SJM) files automatic mixed securities shelf.

·     Johnson Outdoors’ (JOUT) board has raised the outdoor recreation equipment maker’s Class A quarterly dividend by 6%, to 33 cents from 31 cents

Energy, Industrials and Materials

·     Ball Corp. (BALL) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.

·     Veralto Corp. (VLTO) will be added to the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, Oct 2, replacing DXC Technology Co. (DXC) which will move to the S&P SmallCap 600 replacing Ebix Inc. (EBIX). S&P 500 &100 constituent Danaher Corp. (DHR) is spinning off Veralto.

Financials

·     Vestis Corp. (VSTS) will be added to the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, October 2, replacing Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) which will be moved to the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the open of trading on Tuesday, October 3. Kohl’s will replace Hawaiian Holdings Inc. (HA) in the S&P SmallCap 600

·     BlackRock Inc. (BLK) Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said he’s open to more acquisitions, as the world’s largest asset manager increasingly seeks to position itself as a one-stop shop for investors. “I do see some very large opportunities for inorganic growth,” Fink told Bloomberg.

Healthcare

·     Editas Medicine (EDIT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel.

·     Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) files to sell $500M in common stock and warrants.

·     Quince Therapeutics (QNCX) said the FDA has lifted partial clinical hold on late-stage study for its lead drug, EryDex.

·     PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (PTCT) announced today further strategic prioritization and associated workforce reduction; also confirmed today its plans to submit the re-examination request for the CHMP opinion on Translarna.

Technology, Media & Telecom

·     US listed Chinese stocks such as Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU) looking higher after Beijing proposed easing rules on cross-border data flows. The Cyberspace Administration of China’s proposal would mean that data transfers relating to international trade, global manufacturing and marketing activities that don’t contain personal data no longer need to go through a security review. It’s seen as a move to boost business activity https://tinyurl.com/3rtmbv7b

·     Blackberry (BB) Q2 adj EPS loss (-$0.04) vs. est. loss (-$0.06); Q2 revs $132M, in-line with consensus; Q2 total company non-GAAP gross margin 65%; Blackberry CEO when asked about the progress of co’s strategic review says there is better than 50-50 chance to expecting something soon according to comments on conference call, as per Reuters.

·     Opera (OPRA) 6.9M share Secondary priced at $12.25.