Morning Preview: September 30, 2024

Early Look

Monday, September 30, 2024

Futures

Up/Down

%

Last

Dow

-38.00

0.09%

42,618

S&P 500

-5.25

0.09%

5,786

Nasdaq

-23.50

0.11%

20,198

 

 

U.S. futures are looking slightly lower after major averages rose for a third week last Friday, as market attention turns to jobs data later this week. For last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% (new record high), the S&P 500 was up 0.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1%, all registering their third straight week of gains. U.S. stocks are also on track for the 10th higher month in the last 11 heading into the final trading day of September. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index tumbled 1,910 points or 4.8% to settle at 37,919, after surging last week, while the Shanghai Index surged 248 points, or over 8% to 3,336 (biggest gain since 2008), and the Hang Seng Index jumped 501 points to 21,133. In Europe, the German DAX is down -95 points to 19,376, while the FTSE 100 is down -40 points to 8,280. China markets skyrocketed after the Guangzhou city government said in a notice on Sunday that all restrictions on home purchases would be removed, effective from Monday. They said it will no longer examine home buyers’ qualifications and will stop limiting the number of homes that can be bought per household. In stock news, automakers under pressure after Jeep owner Stellantis (STLA) joined rivals Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes in recent weeks about the worsening outlook for auto demand and rising costs. Bitcoin prices edging lower by over 3% to $63,500.

 

Market Closing Prices Yesterday

  • The S&P 500 Index dipped -7.30 points, or 0.13%, to 5,738.17.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 137.89 points, or 0.33%, to 42,313.00
  • The Nasdaq Composite dropped -70.70 points, or 0.39%, to 18,119.59.
  • The Russell 2000 Index advanced 14.83 points, or 0.67% to 2,224.70.

Economic Calendar for Today

  • 12:00 PM ET                Quarterly grain report
  • 1:00 PM ET                   Fed’s Powell Speaks at NABE

Earnings Calendar:

  • Earnings Before the Open: CCL
  • Earnings After the Close: POCI TRAK VRAR

Other Key Events:

  • National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, 9/30-10/1

 

 

Macro

Up/Down

Last

Nymex

0.10

68.28

Brent

-0.22

71.76

Gold

-7.20

2,660.90

EUR/USD

0.0023

1.1186

JPY/USD

0.49

142.68

10-Year Note

+0.026

3.775%

 

World News

  • Parts of the Southeast were devastated this weekend from Hurricane Helene as much of Asheville, North Carolina is underwater, state residents are trapped in their homes without power or food, many roads are closed even to rescue crews, and cellphone outages make finding survivors more difficult. The state Department of Transportation posted on X that more than 400 roads were shut as of Saturday, saying, “All roads in Western NC should be considered closed.”
  • Israel struck power plants and a seaport in Yemen Sunday after the Houthi rebel group launched two ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv in recent days, as the Israeli military continued an air campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The strikes in Yemen targeted the port city of Hodeidah as well as Ras Issa, the Israeli military said, and relied on dozens of aircraft, including jet fighters and refueling planes to hit the targets over 1,100 miles from Israel’s border.
  • Japan’s industrial output declined more than expected in August as Industrial output fell 3.3% in August from the previous month, compared with a 0.9% decline expected in a poll of economists and July’s 3.1% increase.
  • China manufacturing PMI 49.8 vs 49.4 estimate and non-manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 50.4 estimate; the Caixin manufacturing PMI 49.3 vs 50.5 estimate and services PMI 50.3 vs 51.6 estimate.

Sector News Breakdown

Consumer

  • Stellantis (STLA) shares tumble -13% in auto industry as the owner of Chrysler, Jeep and Fiat warns about lower-than-expected profit, citing higher costs to overhaul U.S. business, Chinese competition on electric vehicles and worsening trends in the auto industry. Stellantis joins rivals BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen which all lowered guidance the last week. Stellantis said it was dropping expectations for positive free cash flow, and now expected to burn through 5B and 10B euros, watch shares of GM, Ford, and other auto makers.
  • Nio Inc. (NIO) shares rise over 10% pre mkt after unveiling a cash injection worth 13.3 billion yuan ($1.9 billion) from existing shareholders. A group of strategic investors – including Hefei Jianheng New Energy Automobile Investment Fund Partnership, Anhui Provincial Emerging Industry Investment Co., and CS Capital Co. — has definitive agreements to invest 3.3 billion yuan in cash for newly issued shares of Nio Holding Co.

Energy, Industrials and Materials

  • Boeing (BA) and its machinists’ union haven’t made any progress in recent talks to end a labor strike. Friday night, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 751 tweeted that talks between the two sides have broken off with little progress and “we have no further dates scheduled at this time.” Boeing has offered base wage increases of about 30% over the life of a four-year contract and some enhancements to retirement benefits. The union, however, wants to shift back to a defined-pension plan from 401(k) accounts.
  • In Solar, U.S. trade officials this week may impose new tariffs on solar panels from four Southeast Asian nations that American manufacturers have complained employ unfair subsidies that make U.S. products uncompetitive. The announcement, due on Tuesday, is the first of two preliminary decisions the Commerce Department will make this year in a trade case brought by Korea’s Hanwha Qcells, First Solar (FSLR) and several smaller companies seeking to protect billions of dollars in investments in U.S. solar manufacturing.
  • Watch railroads (CSX, NSC, UNP), as well as freight and logistics companies (JBHT, CHRW, WERN, KNX, ODFL, etc.) as a dockworkers’ strike threatening to close ports on the East and Gulf coasts beginning this week. The 45,000 members of the International Longshoremen’s Association have threatened to strike this week which could shut down 36 ports from Maine to Texas that handle about half the goods shipped into and out of the United States. The union is demanding significantly higher wages and a total ban on the automation of cranes, gates and moving containers in the loading and unloading of freight. (West Coast dockworkers belong to a different union and aren’t involved in the strike).
  • Industrial metal stocks RIO, BHP, VALE, FCX, AA, etc.; watch shares after major Chinese cities loosen home curbs, as China stock markets rally again on stimulus measures.

Financials

  • Shares of Chinese property developers rallied on Monday after major cities in mainland China unveiled easing measures to boost homebuyer sentiment, following the central bank’s blitz of policy stimulus. The Guangzhou city government said in a notice on Sunday that all restrictions on home purchases would be removed, effective from Monday.

Healthcare

  • Hedge fund Glenview Capital has taken a large position in CVS Corp. (CVS), pushing for changes in the healthcare company which has seen its shares fall 24% this year to date. The slated meeting, between CVS and hedge fund Glenview Capital Management, comes amid signs investors are turning restless with the company – WSJ https://tinyurl.com/2jc2z5yn
  • Roche (RHHBY) confirmed a move to trim its pipeline and narrow its focus amid a push to fast track its entry into the weight-loss drug market. Roche outlined its new pharmaceutical strategy through 2030 and said it narrowed the set of disease areas it targets to 11, including obesity, confirming a report by The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.

Technology, Media & Telecom

  • AT&T Inc. (T) said it has agreed to sell its controlling stake in DirecTV Entertainment Holdings LLC to private-equity firm TPG Inc. for about $7.6B in cash payments from DirecTV and TPG through 2029. Under the terms of the deal, AT&T will receive an initial payment of $2B in 2025 and additional payments totaling $500M in 2029. https://tinyurl.com/yk2jb6x6
  • AT&T’s (T) DirecTV is in advanced talks to acquire its satellite-TV rival Dish (SATS), people familiar with the matter said, in a deal that could create one of the country’s largest Pay-TV distributors https://tinyurl.com/2mdjmuse
  • Rapid7 (RPD) shares rose late Friday after shareholder Jana Partners filed a 13D showing an increased stake in the company as it continues to push the cybersecurity software provider to pursue a sale. Jana Partners management, LP reports 5.8% stake in rapid7 Inc as of September 20.
  • Verizon Communications (VZ) is in advanced talks to sell thousands of mobile phone towers to digital infrastructure firm Vertical Bridge, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Verizon Communications is in advanced talks to sell thousands of mobile phone towers to digital infrastructure firm Vertical Bridge – Bloomberg.
  • Vodafone (VOD) and Three tell antitrust regulators they’ll keep a £10-per-month plan available for two years if the companies are allowed to merge in the UK
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom has vetoed a controversial artificial-intelligence (AI) safety bill that pitted some of the biggest tech companies against prominent scientists who developed the technology. The Democrat decided to reject the measure because it applies only to the biggest and most expensive AI models and doesn’t consider whether they are deployed in high-risk situations, he said in his veto message – WSJ

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.